Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

Ashcroft Rochester poll has Reckless on course to win next week’s by-election for UKIP but for CON to retake the seat next May

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The GE15 finding will be a deterrent for other potential defectors The detail of the Ashcroft Rochester poll are jjust out and feature in the chart above. The 12% UKIP lead is very much in line with other recent Rochester polling from Survation and ComRes and unless there’s a sharp turnaround in the the next week Mark Reckless looks to set return to Westminster. But there’s a huge sting in the tale for Reckless. The sample was also asked how…

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Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

Extraordinarily both CON and LAB fall to new lows on the Betfair GE2015 market AT THE SAME TIME

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LAB chances of overall majority at GE2015 fall to new low, a 23.2% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/CbSO0PuBgM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Tory chances of an overall majority at GE2015 fall to a new low, a 14.3% chance, on the Betfair exchange pic.twitter.com/v2PkIlFbd1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2014 Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON…

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The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

The opening prices on the GE2015 spread betting markets have LAB 18 seats ahead of CON but well short of a majority

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At last. The GE15 Commons seats spread betting opens with this from SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk pic.twitter.com/jgmIA7W0FX — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Mid points on the SportingIndex http://t.co/ERIjhtuNTk Commons seats spreads LAB 294 seats CON 276 LD 28 UKIP 9 SNP 21 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 10, 2014 Now the betting can get really serious For me political betting is about the spreads where things like commons seats are traded like stocks and share and where the more you are right the more you…

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Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

Leading psephologist argues that likeability ratings are better predictor of voting behaviour than “best leader” questions

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Essex Uni psephologist Prof Paul Whiteley argues that EdM not far behind DC on likeability http://t.co/xch2fvo90D pic.twitter.com/1iXsXb3d82 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 9, 2014 On this measure Ed is not far behind One of the issues that the current Ed Miliband issue has brought out is what are the best form of leader ratings. Prof Paul Whiteley, of University of Essex who ran BPIX, posted an interesting article last night suggesting that some of the standard measures like “best leader” might…

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The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

The big picture is that Cameron’s Conservatives continue to lose much more to UKIP than Miliband’s LAB

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While that remains the Tories are heading for defeat After a massive polling Saturday and the ongoing speculation about Ed Miliband let’s step back for a moment and look at the wider picture. The chart above is from the latest batch of Lord Ashcroft’s CON-LAB marginals polling with an aggregate sample about three times as large as all the data that came out overnight. It highlights the big development that appears not to be going away – the rise of…

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