On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

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Most seats betting On the morning of Osbo's big speech CON gets tighter in GE most seats betting & now almost level with LAB pic.twitter.com/2J3w02gyqx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Overall majority betting Best overall majority odds now just 1/2 in GE 15 outcome betting. LAB maj just has edge on CON pic.twitter.com/3BnVQ0lxcN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 But it’s Scotland not the economy that’s influencing the markets As we face the most uncertain general election…

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YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

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Can the NHS be sidelined? The above chart is based on YouGov data for today’s Times and shows the different perceptions, broken down by party support, of what might happen to the NHS if the Tories win GE15. What I find interesting is the fairly similar range of responses in the chart between LAB and UKIP voters. The pattern is the same. In a sense this tells us nothing new. The real matter is whether Cameron/Osborne can sideline this as…

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

Lord Ashcroft corrects his Doncaster N poll – EdM NOT in danger from UKIP in Doncaster North

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How the correction and apology to Edm appears of @LordAshcroft site pic.twitter.com/vpduUXqvlE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 CORRECTED Doncaster N poll from @LordAshcroft CON 13 LAB 54 LD 4 UKIP 25 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 So even if CON tactically vote with UKIP in Doncaster N then EdM would have 18% lead. REVISED @LordAshcroft polll — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 This post will be updated when this week’s Ashcroft national poll is published This week's @LordAshcroft…

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New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

New report suggests that students could tip the balance of power at GE15 provided they register to vote

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@MSmithsonPB: Indy story that new rules http://t.co/qsTs7zzffQ on student registering to vote could cost Clegg seat pic.twitter.com/DJ6XQcswfu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2014 And that could mean trouble for Clegg in Sheffield Hallam Following the Lord Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam poll last week which had the LD leader with a lead of just 3% over LAB there’s a new analysis of student voting patterns by Oxford’s Stephen Fisher suggesting that Nick Clegg and other Lib Dems could be vulnerable in…

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