LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

LAB down 2 seats, UKIP -0.5 as CON moves up on the GE15 spread markets

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Post Autumn Statement Commons seats spreads from Sporting Index http://t.co/56fhx8BJCR CON up 2/LAB & UKIP down pic.twitter.com/8h22hRhd9w — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Punters think this’ll help the Tories The above prices were fixed this morning and have remained all day. Interesting that UKIP edges down a touch as well as LAB. This election remains a very difficult contest to call and it is hard to make a case to buy or sell at any of the above levels….

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The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

The genius of George Osborne: His government’s failure on the deficit is being ignored

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How the Sun is treating Osborne's AS pic.twitter.com/fFT6XjFA3e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mirror front page on AS pic.twitter.com/eao43yavp1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Mail'sfront page on AS pic.twitter.com/SM3kMqAOvT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 FT front page on AS pic.twitter.com/i68pNH8r9c — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 @Telegraph on the AS pic.twitter.com/qYLF1okpHM — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Times front page on AS pic.twitter.com/Y3pwUY3G9u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 4, 2014 Guardian front…

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If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

If the Tories do manage to stay in power after May 7th much of the credit will go to George Osborne

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That won’t harm his leadership ambitions The autumn statement was always going to be a major event on the road to May 7th and George Osborne didn’t disappoint. So many different ideas and measures all designed to make it harder for Labour in the economic debate in the run up to the election and to block out the kippers. Although they were well-trailed the stamp duty changes look right for that “middle” audience which the Tories have to bring back…

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Osborne making his statement amidst declining confidence in the economy

Osborne making his statement amidst declining confidence in the economy

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The polling background to the Autumn Statement From YouGov: Voters much less confident about the economy than they were at March budget. pic.twitter.com/xpic7ULSYe — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Osborne's YouGov well/badly ratings down since budget but still voters rate him over Ed Balls pic.twitter.com/L5rrmZ91J7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

On the morning of Osborne’s big speech the GE15 betting gets even tighter. Now almost level-pegging

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Most seats betting On the morning of Osbo's big speech CON gets tighter in GE most seats betting & now almost level with LAB pic.twitter.com/2J3w02gyqx — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 Overall majority betting Best overall majority odds now just 1/2 in GE 15 outcome betting. LAB maj just has edge on CON pic.twitter.com/3BnVQ0lxcN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 3, 2014 But it’s Scotland not the economy that’s influencing the markets As we face the most uncertain general election…

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YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

YouGov polling shows the very difficult challenge ahead for the Tories on the NHS

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Can the NHS be sidelined? The above chart is based on YouGov data for today’s Times and shows the different perceptions, broken down by party support, of what might happen to the NHS if the Tories win GE15. What I find interesting is the fairly similar range of responses in the chart between LAB and UKIP voters. The pattern is the same. In a sense this tells us nothing new. The real matter is whether Cameron/Osborne can sideline this as…

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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