Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair

Just one poll in past 17 has CON lead yet Tories winning most seats becomes an even tighter favourite on Betfair

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CON to win most seats moves to an even stronger favourite on Betfair. Now a 62% chance pic.twitter.com/Qj3KJgc8ue — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 One poll with a CON lead in the past 17 pic.twitter.com/jmyBnGqEnS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Am I missing something here? Discuss On this exact day before GE2010 the money was going on a substantial CON majority in spite of the polls pic.twitter.com/Rt6VoJy5wc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 21, 2015 Mike Smithson For…

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David Herdson on Tactical voting: “the voters’ blind man’s bluff”

David Herdson on Tactical voting: “the voters’ blind man’s bluff”

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Why I think tactical voting will be down this year Once upon a time it was easy. There were only three parties, you had a rough idea of how the local land lay and if your preferred party stood no chance while your second preference did, then you could lend them your vote in the hope of keeping out the worst option. Oh for such simple times. Before looking forward, a quick look back. The phenomenon of widespread tactical voting…

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As relations get even more strained with Mr. Putin Marf on Cameron’s cool response

As relations get even more strained with Mr. Putin Marf on Cameron’s cool response

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Politicalbetting's Marf on Cameron playing it cool with Putin pic.twitter.com/7ZkBqcX4Ac — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015 The next PB gathering in London has been arranged for 7pm on March 17th at The Shooting Star 125-129 Middlesex Street London E1 7JF. This is just round the corner from Dirty Dicks. Hopefully the new venue will be more comfortable.

LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target

LDs said to be “competitve” in Solihull – the Tories’ top yellow target

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Survation private polling suggests the LDs "competitive" in Solihill CON target number 3 http://t.co/4JXAuHaYct pic.twitter.com/WOdNRrFFyc — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 20, 2015 Ladbrokes have them at 10/3 Big polling story of the day are the reports of Survation private seat surveys for the Lib Dems some of the details of which the party is publishing. A key element, unlike the Ashcroft polling, is that incumbent MPs are named which is having a positive impact on response. This is from the report:…

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There could be a swing-back to the incumbent government – the yellow bit rather than the blue

There could be a swing-back to the incumbent government – the yellow bit rather than the blue

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When the formal campaign starts politics could be very different One of the great hopes that has kept Tory spirits alive during this difficult period when consistent poll leads seem to have eluded them is the well recorded pattern of swing-backs to the government. We saw that markedly in the final stage of GE2010 when Labour finished with a far higher share of the vote and considerably more seats than anybody foresaw. The spread markets at the start of polling…

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Marf for tonight + Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview

Marf for tonight + Harry Hayfield’s local by-election preview

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Marf cartoon for tonight pic.twitter.com/iJxP0x8RJS — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2015 Tonight’s local by- elections from Harry Hayfield Hengoed on Carmarthenshire (Lab Defence) Result of council at last election (2012): Plaid Cymru 28, Labour 23, Independents 22, People First 1 (No Overall Control, Plaid Cymru short by 10) Result of ward at last election (2012): Emboldened denotes elected People First 337, 261 (33%) Labour 338, 253 (28%) Plaid Cymru 315, 271 (28%) Independent 213 (10%) Non Party Independent 89…

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Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going to be as easy for UKIP to take CON seats as was thought

Latest Lord Ashcroft marginals polling finds it’s not going to be as easy for UKIP to take CON seats as was thought

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1. Boston & Skegness: pic.twitter.com/qPH9zxPmZL — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 2. Castle Point: pic.twitter.com/fN7TOjZ1bi — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 3. South Basildon & East Thurrock: pic.twitter.com/PtDrEtY0qI — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 4. North East Cambridgeshire: pic.twitter.com/UC2rVWuJPn — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) February 19, 2015 Lord A UKIP-CON marginals data finds little evidence of anti-purple tactical voting. 18/19% of 2010 LABLIBCON vote goes UKIP but not enough — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 19, 2015 Big surprise…

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Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

Why relatively small movements amongst just 1% of likely voters on May 7th can mean so much in terms of the GE15 outcome

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The John Curtice guide to what SNP leads in Scotland mean in terms of seats pic.twitter.com/NNzk0nSU64 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 18, 2015 The extraordinary impact of Scotland Looking at the GB electorate as a whole the total of voters who have moved from LAB to the SNP in Scotland amount to fewer than 1% yet the impact in terms of seats can be enormous which is why Scottish polls are so significant. I am sure we are all aware…

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