Don Brind sticks his neck out and argues that the leadership race is now “too close to call”

Don Brind sticks his neck out and argues that the leadership race is now “too close to call”

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Corbyn could be heading for a shock There’s an unmistakeable mood of triumphalism in the Corbyn camp after their victory in the High court over allowing all new members to use their vote and a slew of results which have been widely interpreted as showing Jeremy Corbyn really does have momentum. I believe the contest is very tight and that Owen Smith has a very good chance of victory. I’m undoubtedly sticking my neck out because I’m at odds with…

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Looking back at BREXIT, the implications for Scotland and, of course, the LAB leadership – all in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

Looking back at BREXIT, the implications for Scotland and, of course, the LAB leadership – all in latest PB/Polling Matters Podcast

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Getting to the heart of the issues Keiran Pedley was joined by Julia Rampen from the New Statesman and Leo Barasi and discussed polling around support for Scottish Independence post Brexit, Labour splitting and some interesting polling from GQR around the causes of Brexit, roll of immigration and what happens next. Julia also gave her insight into Scottish politics and the latest on the Labour Leadership race in the aftermath of the GMB endorsement of Owen Smith. The audio podcast…

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Owen Smith team says it has private LAB leadership poll with Corbyn below 50%

Owen Smith team says it has private LAB leadership poll with Corbyn below 50%

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Owen Smith source says private polling shows Corbyn on less than 50% for the first time with "a lot of don't knows". — George Eaton (@georgeeaton) August 10, 2016 Owen Smith team need to publish actual poll rather than just brief journos. If JC really below 50% then actual data would have big impact — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2016 This is the sort of development that drives me crazy. If Smith really does have a private poll with…

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Labour’s paradox: The huge increase in members hasn’t led to greater electoral success, rather the reverse

Labour’s paradox: The huge increase in members hasn’t led to greater electoral success, rather the reverse

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Latest party membership totals: Parliament Research Briefing One of the most extraordinary phenomenon of modern UK political times has been the massive increase in Labour’s membership since GE2015. The figures are just astounding and there is no parallel. Membership, May 6th 2015: 201,293 Membership, January 10th 2016: 388,407 Membership, August 2016: 515,000 From a political organisational point of view this is amazing because the general view is that more members mean more people ready and able to carry out the…

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Ex-LAB MP and PB regular, Nick Palmer, on why a party split won’t work

Ex-LAB MP and PB regular, Nick Palmer, on why a party split won’t work

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It’s pretty clear that Corbyn has won the re-run, and talk of trying once more next year has faded amid eye-rolling on all sides at the thought of doing it all over again. Instead, the hard-core anti-Corbyn wing has started to talk about a split. This could take two forms: A Parliament-only split. The objective would be to win over more than half the MPs and persuade the Speaker that this meant that the rebels were the real official opposition…

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Labour chooses an Everton fan to be its candidate for Mayor of Greater Manchester

Labour chooses an Everton fan to be its candidate for Mayor of Greater Manchester

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He’s resigning as an MP creating a by-election in Leigh One of the legacies of George Osborne’s chancellorship was the creation of an executive mayor to cover the greater Manchester region. This was the spearhead of the “Northern Powerhouse” which is no longer looked on favourably by the current occupant of Number 10. You can understand Andy Burnham, after what must have been a bruising failure in last year’s LAB leadership contest, looked round for something else that he could…

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Corbyn wrecks McDonnell’s economic credibility plans

Corbyn wrecks McDonnell’s economic credibility plans

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Don Brind on how Corbyn’s out of line with his shadow chancellor For someone who insisted for years that Twitter wouldn’t catch on I’m pathetically pleased these days when one of my tweets gets liked. I was somewhat surprised to get a “like” from a committed Corbynite Mrs Gee. I had told her  “I’m a bit of a fan of John McDonnell — when he’s doing his day job”. The qualification was crucial. By day job I meant Shadow Chancellor and…

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As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy the good polling news for Clinton continues

As Trump prepares to give a defining speech on the economy the good polling news for Clinton continues

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Trump’s best hope is by becoming more boring This from the excellent Rick Klein of ABC neatly sums up where we are and what Trump needs to do:- ” It’s not just that Donald Trump needs to pivot – it’s that he needs to pivot away from being what’s made him Donald Trump. That means traditional-candidate Trump, maybe even boring-candidate Trump, reading from notes or TelePrompTers, and staying away from interviews and Twitter for a while. (Not coincidentally, Hillary Clinton…

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