Whatever the outcome tonight Richmond Park could herald a political period where BREXIT is more important than parties

Whatever the outcome tonight Richmond Park could herald a political period where BREXIT is more important than parties

Comments 0 Comment

Would the Tories stand aside in a seat where UKIP was 2nd behind LAB . Today’s Richmond Park by-election highlights a very new development in British politics where the main issue of the day, BREXIT and its implementation, have become more important than parties. UKIP’s decision to stand aside in Richmond Park as well as the similar move by the Greens on the other side of the argument could mark something very different from what we are used to. At…

Read More Read More

The Lib Dems could be making a massive mistake claiming they’re on target to win Richmond Park tomorrow

The Lib Dems could be making a massive mistake claiming they’re on target to win Richmond Park tomorrow

Comments 0 Comment

The Guardian What would be good result getting very close will be seen as a failure The big news on this final day of campaigning in the Richmond Park by-election is that the Lib Dems are claiming that they are ahead. According to data made available to the Guardian the party’s current projection is: Goldsmith 45.8% LIB Dems 47.2% LAB 6.2% As I’ve argued previously you should treat all data like this as coming from a partisan source and should…

Read More Read More

TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots now back independence than at the 2014 referendum

TMay moves to negative ratings in Scotland while fewer Scots now back independence than at the 2014 referendum

Comments 0 Comment

Given the huge importance of Scotland as the UK moves towards BREXIT there’s a new Scotland only YouGov poll – the first since August. These are some of the key points:- New YouGov Scottish poll for Times finds support for independence down to 44% – lower than it was at the Sept 2014 referendum — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 30, 2016 TMay sees sharp YouGov ratings drop in Scotland. To the doing job well/badly question she's moved from net PLUS…

Read More Read More

On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

On top of LAB polling woes first analysis of the new boundaries suggests LAB will need vote lead of 13.5% to get a majority

Comments 0 Comment

The Tories only need a 1.9% margin YouGov’s Anthony Wells who runs UK Polling Report had produced his first analysis of the planned new boundary changes and the outcome is excellent for the Tories and terrible for Labour. The analysis also has the LDs down to just four MPs. I’m just on my way home from the Political Studies Association Awards in London and I’ll do more on this when I’ve had time to look at this in greater detail….

Read More Read More

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Now two years old and heading for 1m+ downloads

The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Now two years old and heading for 1m+ downloads

Comments 0 Comment

The best analysis & insight on the latest political polling With this latest PB/Polling Matters podcast the development, pioneered by pollster Keiran Pedley, is two years old during which time there have been more than 900k downloads with the million mark not that far off. PB began collaborating with Keiran a few months after the launch and since then this has become a key part in the overall site offerings. On this week’s anniversary edition Keiran is joined by regular…

Read More Read More

Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-elections Zac’s chances are good

Based on the success of other MPs who resigned to fight by-elections Zac’s chances are good

Comments 0 Comment

It’s more than 30 years since an incumbent failed In much of the discussion on Richmond Park a lot has been made of the 19%+ CON>LD swing that the yellows achieved in Witney which is almost exactly what is required in Thursday’s contest. The only difference is that in this latest by-election the LDs are fighting the incumbent and there is a well recorded incumbency effect. In fact if you look at other by-elections where the incumbent seeks re-election then…

Read More Read More

Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post

Nuttall’s first goal as UKIP leader is winning under first past the post

Comments 0 Comment

BREXIT means no UKIP MEPs from 2019 Today marks another new chapter in UKIP’s short history with the election by a substantial majority of members of Paul Nuttall as party leader. He’s from the North West and has a very different back story than the public-school former city trader, Nigel Farage, that he replaces. Nuttall said his first objective was to take the battle to Labour which under Corbyn has looked weaker and extremely vulnerable particularly in its heartlands. If…

Read More Read More