This is what the polling showed in Eastleigh Above is the split for the final Eastleigh poll by Lord Ashcroft. As can be seen it was C2s and DEs who swung most to the purples. We are seeing the same trend in current polling. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
All but one of the main four monthly pollsters have UKIP on record highs. The other one has them just 1 off. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 30, 2013 One of the key rules when analysing polls is not to compare the individual numbers from the different firms but to look at the overall trends. And from the main pollsters, the established firms that have been commissioned to carry out regular voting intention surveys at least once since at…
Chart from YouGov data on how Ukip voters are far more likely than others to believe that MMR vaccine is unsafe. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 LAB lead increases by 1% with YouGov Today’s YouGov snapshot for the Sunday Times sees LAB lead once again in single figures.CON 32,LAB 40,LD 11,UKIP 10 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 21, 2013 YouGov leader ratings see rises for Dave & Nick but EdM’s down Cameron’s YouGov leadership ratings see him…
A factor driving Ukip in the national polls. Their supporters are much more likely to say”100% certain to vote” twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013 Ladbrokes open the first market on the May 2 locals. It’s 5/2 that UKIP gain 100+ seats. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2013 Just how many seats will the purples win? The big talking point at last night’s PB gathering at Dirty Dicks in London was how many seats will Ukip…
Back in 2009 the Ukip proportion was about one in five Over the next couple of days we should see the full nomination list for the council seats that are due to be contested on May 2nd and the big focus is on how many candidates Ukip will manage to field. For given what’s been happening in recent council by-elections the presence of Ukip on the ballot forms can have a big impact on outcomes. Given that the Tories are…
UKipwin NE Lincolnshire- Humberston & New Waltham from CON.UKIP 1098, CON 738 votes, LAB 470, LD 311. 3rd local gain in 4 wks — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Ukip 2nd place @ Wigan – PembertonLAB 1084 UKIP 451 Com Action 203 CON 89 BNP 63 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 Ukip 2nd place@ Bilborough on Nottingham.LAB 1542 UKIP 347 CON 176 GRN 103 LD 96 Elvis 31 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 5, 2013 The purple…
What’s the current most popular #GE2015 Ukip bet is the 8/1 from William Hill that they’ll win 2+ MPs twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 25, 2013 Quite simply Ukip has a better than 11.1% chance of doing it Whenever punters make bets they are NOT making predictions. What they are doing is looking at the odds and deciding that the chance of the outcome happening is greater than the implied probability that the price suggests. Until now the view…
A reminder from 1989 what party splits can do to electoral prospects.Look at how the rump of the SDP split the vote twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 23, 2013 See the by-election that made William Hague an MP This week there’s been a bit of focus on the creation of the Lib Dems which was formed by the merger of the old Liberal party and the SDP exactly 25 years ago. It wasn’t so easy for the new party…