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Category: UK Elections – others

The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

The EP2014 election is so tight that what could be decisive is how many Ukip supporters mistakenly vote for “An Independence from Europe”

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With Ukip 1% up in final EP2014 YouGov votes going to An Alternative to Europe at top of ballot could swing it pic.twitter.com/1spTU6tsYT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 21, 2014 Standby for a row if AIFE’s total is bigger than Ukip’s losing margin With YouGov’s final EP2014 poll showing Ukip with a lead of just 1% it is possible that what stops Farage’s party from winning on votes will be the spoiler party “An Independence from Europe – UK Independence Now”….

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Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

Concern about ballot form confusion could be behind falling off of Ukip in most EP seats Betfair markets

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Ukip most seats at Euros price easing from a 72% chance to a 54% on Betfair. pic.twitter.com/JYYSXpBJPE — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014 @ChrisBloore Postal ballots just started to arrive with apparent confusion of alternative to Ukip at top of form pic.twitter.com/kxi9TpwQyd — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) May 5, 2014

The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

The 2014 Rallings and Thrasher local elections forecasts: LAB to make 490 gains

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Prof Colin Rallings projection for May 22 locals CON -160 LAB +500 LD – 340 Ukip ??? pic.twitter.com/2VqfIooP1e — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 29, 2014 For two decades Professors Rallings & Thrasher have been producing forecasts ahead of the May local elections based on their local by-election model. Usually these are “revealed” at a special briefing at the Institute of Government organised by the Political Studies Association which is what I’ve been attending today. This is an event that the party spinners absolutely hate…

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First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

First post Easter Euros poll sees almost no change

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The LDs back in double figures This morning’s Sun sees the first post holiday weekend Euros poll from YouGov and the only changes on the the last survey are all within the margin of error. LAB no change, UKIP and CON both down one with the LDs back up one at 10%. Clegg’s party will be relieved that the negative reaction to the debates with Farage seem to be fading and that a 10% share should not produce the wipe…

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Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

Newly published Ipsos-MORI polling finds fewer voters hostile to LAB than the other main parties

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And there’s a whiff of good news for the LDs at the Euros What I’ve found to be a fascinating piece of polling for the British Future think tank has just been published by Ipsos-MORI. Rather than the conventional voting intention questions interviewees were asked for views of the four main national parties and whether they’d consider voting for them in both general elections and the Euros, general elections only, the Euros only, or whether they’d never consider voting for…

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There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

There’s no way that UKIP should be betting favourite to win most votes at EURO2014 based on current polling

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It’s even possible that they’ll struggle to retain 2nd place It’s not often that we see such a mismatch between the betting on an election just three and a half months away and what the pollsters are telling us. That’s what’s happening with the May Euro elections where the UKIP winning most votes prices remains strong even though there’s little polling evidence to support it. There’ve only been three published polls so far this year. The Tories have been in…

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Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

Half of those who told YouGov that they’ll vote UKIP in the May Euros supported the Tories at GE210

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UKIP only 2% behind LAB amongst those certain to vote UKIP WAS included in YouGov’s opening prompt UKIP WAS included in the opening prompt for YouGov's EP2014 poll & firm indicates possible change for Westminster http://t.co/J61mBrOrCf — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014

The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped

The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped

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EU elections ballot paper http://t.co/RLIyaIkww4 — PolPics (@PolPics) January 16, 2014 YouGov/Sun EP2014 poll has LAB 32% UKIP 26% CON 23% LD 9% So CON down to 3rd & LDs in danger of losing all MEPs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 The weird system made for the party machines Today we have, see above, the first YouGov poll for the big UK election this year that takes place on May 22nd when 73 UK MEPs will be elected to the European Parliament….

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