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Category: UK Elections – others

UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

UKIP has suffered most in real elections in LEAVE areas since BREXIT – the pro-EU LDs the best

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A few months ago Harry Hayfield, PB’s local election specialist, introduced a new element in his regular monitoring of local by-election: dividing them up into whether the local authority areas voted REMAIN or LEAVE on June 23rd. This enables us to compare the two areas. A lot of focus has been put on seat changes but the above data looks at how the vote shares have changed in the two types of seat. The vote change relates to what happened…

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The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories

The Tories must be hoping that the newly created elected mayoralties will lead to some CON victories

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The blues are badly represented in this government tier When Zac Goldsmith failed in his effort to become London mayor in May the total number of these posts held by the Tories was reduced to just one – Torbay. This is an electoral segment where the party has struggled and even at its peak only held three of them. A big reason, of course is that they’ve tended to be set up in towns and cities where the Tories have…

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It’s not just Manchester where there’ll be 2017 directly elections for the mayors of newly created combined authorities

It’s not just Manchester where there’ll be 2017 directly elections for the mayors of newly created combined authorities

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The Osborne restructuring plan comes into effect On May 4th there’ll be huge wave of new elections for the newly created combined mayors in the place listed above. Electors in large parts of England will have their chance to vote for these new positions which have been created largely because of George Osborne. A lot of powers are being devolved to them and the elected mayors are set to become major figures in their areas. Looking at the list the…

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Andy Burnham’s victory in first Gtr Manchester Mayoral Race should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion

Andy Burnham’s victory in first Gtr Manchester Mayoral Race should not be regarded as a foregone conclusion

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Manchester Evening News May 19 2016 Former LAB Health Secs have flopped in mayoral races before The biggest election, in terms of the one involving the most number of voters, planned for 2017 is the May contest for the elected Mayor of Greater Manchester. The bookies make ex-LAB health sec and twice failed leadership candidate, Andy Burnham the tight odds on favourite. Ladbrokes have him at 1/6. As well as the City of Manchester itself it covers a huge range…

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The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

The numbers that the pollsters hope will help restore faith in their industry

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For the past year it has not been much fun being a political pollster. Whenever any new survey has been published it has been greeted with “Well we all know what happened at the General Election”. So today’s elections where there’s been polling, the Welsh Assembly, the Scottish Parliament and most of all London could play a big part in the renewing faith in what they do. The reason this might sound London-centric is because the General Election Scottish polling…

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Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

Professor Michael Thrasher introduces The Elections Centre

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Google   When Rallings and Thrasher established the Elections Centre in the early 1980s the principal aim was to collect and publish local election results in the same way that F.W.S. Craig was covering the parliamentary equivalent. In establishing the website, www.electionscentre.co.uk, the aim is to provide easier access for a wide variety of users to the huge amount of data compiled over the intervening years. Many readers of Political Betting will already be acquainted with the site but a glimpse of future plans can…

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The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years

The task for Corbyn’s LAB on May 5th: Match previous opposition leaders in non general election years

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Kinnock 1984 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1985 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1986 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1988 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1989 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1990 Net gains LAB in locals Kinnock 1991 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1993 Net gains LAB in locals Smith 1994 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1995 Net gains LAB in locals Blair 1996 Net gains LAB in locals Hague 1998 Net…

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Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016

Zac to win mayoralty, Corbyn to survive, Trump to fail: Ipsos MORI poll on what people think will happen in 2016

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Ipsos MORI poll on what Britons think will happen in 2016 pic.twitter.com/3iMR8qkECm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll – Sport etc pic.twitter.com/V2zVmIrJqY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Ipsos MORI 2016 prediction poll Economic pic.twitter.com/aSm7PtQwHC — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 29, 2015 Welcome 2016 – Prediction Time It’s that time of year when people look to the next year and start making predictions. One new development on this that I don’t recall seeing…

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