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Category: UK Elections – others

Has ICM completely ruined Nick’s first by election?

Has ICM completely ruined Nick’s first by election?

crewe.tv Does pre-election polling help squeeze out the third party? The main reason why I have been so confident in my Crewe and Nantwich predictions is the impact that yesterday’s ICM by election poll will have on voting dynamics, particularly in taking the wind out of the Lib Dems’ standard strategy. For with the huge Tory poll surge the only real threat to Cameron was if the Lib Dems could establish themselves as a challenger to Labour thus splitting the…

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Who is winning the C&N YouTube war?

Who is winning the C&N YouTube war?

Edward Timpson – Conservative – 796 views Elizabeth Shenton – Liberal Democrat 469 views Tamsin Dunwoody – Labour – 181 views Where candidates have more than one video on YouTube I have taken the one with the most views. Mike Smithson

Is this really hapening in Tory Target Seat 165?

Is this really hapening in Tory Target Seat 165?

Mail on Sunday My assessment: the Tories have a 90% chance of winning We’ve now got more information about the Mail on Sunday’s ICM poll on the Crewe and Nantwich by election and it’s clear that the situation is even worse for Labour than was being reported last night. The panel above is reproduced from the paper. For the Tory by election poll margin of 4% would have been 12% but for ICM’s “sprial of silence” adjustment. This is a…

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What are your stories from Crewe and Nantwich?

What are your stories from Crewe and Nantwich?

Are Labour’s chances as bad as the media is suggesting? This weekend hundreds and maybe thousands of activists from the main parties will be heading to Crewe and Nantwich for a big couple of days of campaigning ahead of the critical by election a week on Thursday. The weather’s good, the constituency’s road and rail links are excellent and, most of all, Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems have each got something to prove in this key test of…

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Spread markets point to a Tory majority of 40

Spread markets point to a Tory majority of 40

A 24 seat shift to Cameron’s party in just ten days The spread firm, SportingIndex, has just put up its new general election commons seats spreads following the YouGov poll overnight suggesting that Labour are on just 23% – a massive 26% behind. When we last looked at this, a week last Tuesday and two days before polling, I posed the question – “Will punters believe in a Tory majority after Thursday?”. Well they have and the Tory spread has…

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Are punters right about Crewe & Nantwich?

Are punters right about Crewe & Nantwich?

Is a Tory victory a near certainty? Ever since the betting markets opened on the Crewe and Nantwich by election all the money has been going one way. Ladbrokes opened with a 4/5 Tory price which then went to 4/7 and is now at 1/2. Betfair has seen a big rush to get on the Tories and, as I write, the best you can get is 0.34/1. Another bookmaker has 4/9. But is punter confidence in the Tories justified –…

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Is Polly right – Labour’s now “the stupid party”?

Is Polly right – Labour’s now “the stupid party”?

Some depressing words for Labour supporters in Polly Toynbee’s Tuesday Guardian column this morning. After having this to say about May 22nd “..for the Conservatives are no longer the stupid party. Watch them win the Crewe and Nantwich byelection, easy…” she goes on:- “…It is Labour that has become the stupid party – dumb, directionless, depressing. That’s why the voters gave them that 24% sucker punch: it wasn’t about ideology, it was about basic political competence. As the Conservatives unfurl…

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Now can the Tories beat the bar chart kings?

Now can the Tories beat the bar chart kings?

Are they underestimating the LD by election machine? Reproduced above is the first Lib Dem bar chart of the Crewe & Nantwich campaign which has been cleverly designed to present the party as the one that will be able to challenge Labour. It’s smart and no doubt will be on leaflets that will thrust through thousands of letter boxes this weekend as hundred of activists pile into the area to support the campaign. The party’s great expertise is Westminster by…

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