Are the bookies really taking a hammering? The Irish bookmaker PaddyPower has followed up its early payout on Boris in the London Mayoral election by repeating the exercise with the Tories in Crewe and Nantwich. In the former the money came after the polls had closed but before the count. With tomorrow’s by-election the polling stations have not even opened yet. This is good publicity stunt and shows the view of the betting community that a Tory victory tomorrow is…
This looks like a great value bet With the main contest in Crewe & Nantwich now a foregone conclusion is it worth betting on the Lib Dems squeezing out Labour for the runner-up slot? There are a whole series of reasons why this could be a value bet. The odds are good. This morning Ladbrokes are offering 12/1 on this eventuality and are accepting reasonably large bets. The Lib Dems “final 24 hours” record. Where the party is particularly strong…
The chart shows the changing Labour price in the Crewe and Nantwich betting illustrated as an implied probability. Almost inevitably the money has moved away from Labour following the opinion polls suggesting that Gordon Brown has very little chance of saving the seat. You can still get money on the Tories but not very much. The price has been squeezed down to 0.05/1 – which means that a successful £10 bet would produce a profit of just 50 pence. Mike…
Could the pollsters be understating the Tory margin? The Independent’s pollster, ComRes, have made available overnight the full data from their Crewe & Nantwich poll which is in this morning’s paper and is showing a Conservative lead of 13%. Reproduced above is a table showing responses on the turnout question the certainty of voting rated on a scale of 1 to 10 from those interviewed. The picture is the same as we have seen in many other polls – Tory…
Updated 2145 CreweTV By election voting shares – CON 48%: LAB 35%: LD 12% A ComRes poll taken amongst voters in Crewe and Nantwich for the Independent is showing that the Tories are heading for a 13% lead. This is substantially bigger than the 8% that ICM had in their survey at the weekend for the News of the World. The first details came from Andrew Grice’s blog . What could be critical here is the timing of this latest…
How much of this is approved by Gordon? With just over two days of the Crewe and Nantwich this is the latest from the Labour in its increasingly desperate bid to hold on to the seat. For after the controversy over the Toff campaign there is a new theme for the final period which is going to make a lot of people associated with the party feel quite uncomfortable. Its attitude to human rights and its view of how the…
Is John Denham the person who can retain Labour’s English supporters? Because of Gordon Brown’s tendency to make most of the government’s announcements himself we rarely get a chance to see ministers like the Innovation and Universities Secretary, John Denham, in action. Doing a video search of BBC news and you realise how rarely he’s given a chance to appear on television. Yet from looking at the five minutes clip above from this year’s BBC’s local election results programme you…
Can Crewe’s loss be put down to McCabe’s tactics not the PM? Even assiduous PBers with a great interest in politics will probably not recognise the man on Gordon’s left in the picture – but he is Steve McCabe – a Glaswegian trade union official turned Birmingham Labour MP who is running his party’s campaign in Crewe and Nantwich. He’s also a government whip. It is McCabe who is responsible for the “Toff” attacks on the Tory candidate that has…