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Category: UK Elections – others

ComRes piles the gloom on Gord

ComRes piles the gloom on Gord

ComRes home-page CON 40(-5) LAB 21(-5) LD 18 (nc) Look how opinion has changed in the last 18 days? The fieldwork for the Indy on Sunday’s poll took place on Wednesday and Thursday and the first findings (non-voting related) from the poll were, I believe, released on the Daily Politics programme yesterday. The comparisons are with the last voting intention poll from the firm where the fieldwork finished on April 26th. Again, like with the non-registered BPIX, we see a…

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Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

Could Labour be heading for 3rd place in the Euros?

The Sun Is it time to re-think June 4th betting? After arguing yesterday that UKIP that UKIP were unlikely to perform as well on June 4th as they did in 2004 I’m afraid I’m going to have to eat my words. For while we were all putting the focus on YouGov’s 22% share for Labour in a general election we over-looked the figures from an EU election voting intention question as well. There is a discrepancy between the body copy…

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How good is the LAB>UKIP bet?

How good is the LAB>UKIP bet?

Should you be spending big in the William Hill market? For political gamblers there’s nothing like an election in three weeks time to get the juices running for so often the outcomes that we spend hours talking about and debating are such a long way ahead. Not so the June 4th elections. And the big bookies are getting geared up. William Hill got a lot of punters very excited with their LAB>UKIP market which opened with 7/4 being offered on…

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Could this be tomorrow’s PMQ weapon for Gord?

Could this be tomorrow’s PMQ weapon for Gord?

How close is the ex-party chair coming to being expelled? No doubt every word from Lord Tebbitt’s comments today will have been noted at Number 10 and Gord will throw them at Dave tomorrow if he gets half a chance. Cameron made a not very veiled expulsion threat at his press conference this afternoon. Could a Norman Tebbit outside the party be an ongoing embarrassment to the leadership? Mike Smithson

Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Does this suggest a very low turnout on June 4th?

Ipsos-MORI What will it do to the campaign if the EU is not an issue? We are just four weeks and two days from the final national election test ahead of the general election – and hardly anybody seems to have noticed. The one betting market – on whether or not Labour’s share will drop below 20% – says it all. That’s all that the media, pundits and punters seem to be interested in. For the political narrative is almost…

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Will June 6th be D-Day for Labour’s leadership plotters?

Will June 6th be D-Day for Labour’s leadership plotters?

Will the June elections be the pre-text for a move on Brown? Above are the outline results of the 2004 Euro Elections where Labour came in with just 22.6% of the national vote excluding Northern Ireland. The party, was, of course doing far far better in the Westminster voting intention surveys than it is at the moment and it can be argued that it’s performance on June 10th 2004 was inflated by two factors that won’t exist on June 4th….

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How much can we trust this Scottish Euro poll?

How much can we trust this Scottish Euro poll?

STV News Remember the pollster’s 17% Labour lead in Glasgow East? Last July as the Glasgow East by election campaign was going into its final weekend there was a poll from a firm called Progressive Scottish Opinion suggesting that Labour had a 17% lead. On the following Thursday, of course, the SNP won. This had an immediate impact on the betting with the SNP price moving out and Labour becoming and even tighter odds-on favourite. For those who saw this…

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Should private firms like this be running our elections?

Should private firms like this be running our elections?

Opt2Vote Has postal voting made contracting out inevitable? Anybody who has an interest in the way elections are managed and operated should check out the website of Opt2Vote – a firm based in Londonderry in Northern Ireland which seems to have built up a thriving business on the back of Labour’s changes in the election system since 1997 – particularly with the big extension in postal voting. The scale of the firm’s role in UK elections is reflected in its…

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