The reason the totals are showing a decline is because of local boundary changes and the application of a government policy to reduce the overall number of councillors and council wards . What’s up for grabs this May What happened in 2016 and 2017 when these were last up Notice the incredible Tory performance in May 2017. Alas for TMay this was not to be repeated in the general election in June 2017. These were just some of the slides…
Never ignore the alphabetical bonus of being top Above is a photograph of my ballot paper in Eastern region for Thursday’s election and looking at it there are some issues that might help or hinder the various parties. I was with some old election hands in the pub at the weekend and we were discussing how ballot form order and and placing can actually have an impact on the final result. At the locals earlier in the month where I…
From Sunil Prasannan Well, just a few months ago, it seemed certain that, with a scheduled 29th March 2019 date for Brexit, the UK was done with EU elections for good. But, it looks like that we are in the EU for at least a few months more, so here we are! On the other hand, we are a political betting site, so what’s wrong with a full-blown nation-wide poll in 2019? The recent Local Elections (given that many cities and…
The actual was CON -1334, LAB -83, LD +703 The above table was produced by Oxford Professor, Stephen Fisher, and published on his site on the day before the locals. Now we know the results it’s very useful to see how conventional forecasting methods compared against what actually happened and is a good reference for the future. The first two columns are by Stephen Fisher himself. It should be noted that Steven is one of the country’s leading political scientists…
My quickie Twitter survey Earlier this evening I tweeted to ask is people had any sense of what turnout has been like in the locals. My feeling from telling in Bedford is that it is down by quite a bit. These are some of the replies:- Seems low here in Bath. — Hal Westergaard (@hal_westergaard) May 2, 2019 very low here in Three Rivers — norman marsh (@viewfrommyshed) May 2, 2019 Steady in Fulwood, Sheffield at 1500. Suspect a better…
She comes over as decisive firm and tough The conventional wisdom is that you don’t want negative stories about your party to be making the headlines on the day of any elections. Everything is about turnout, particularly with the locals, and all efforts should be made to ensure that your base and your activists are out there enthusiastically going to the polls and getting out the vote. So I just wonder whether the very public sacking Gavin Williamson yesterday evening…
What is extraordinary about the coming Euro elections on May 23rd is just how many different parties will be on the ballot papers. The Wikipedia polling table above seeks to include all of them and I don’t think there has been a previous election like this in modern times. The one thing that makes the coming election different from 2014 is that there will be no simultaneous local elections on the same day. This is the first time this has…
The first of next month’s two electoral challenges for the Tories While everybody seems to be getting excited about the May 23rd Euro elections there has been little focus on the big hurdle that the Tories have to surmount three weeks before that. These are the local elections in England which cover almost all of the country excluding London and just one or two counties. Each year during a four years cycle a different set of local elections takes place…