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Category: Tories

Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Would Tory leads be as big if older methodologies were still used? One factor that has completely changed the backcloth against which UK political life operates has been the almost total overhaul of the polling industry since the 2001 election to deal with what was the systemic problem of Labour over-statement. It is my contention that if the 2001 line-up of pollsters and polling methods were still in place then the current Labour poll deficits would be on a much…

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Is this the man who could pose a problem for Davis?

Is this the man who could pose a problem for Davis?

Will Walter Sweeney attack from the right on 42 days? Amongst the massive list of contenders for the Haltemprice and Howden by election is a Dublin-born former Tory MP who looks set to attack Davis from the right on 42 day detention period issue. He is Walter Sweeney who held Vale of Glamorgan for the Tories by 19 votes in 1992 and who had plenty of run-ins with David Davis during the Maastricht votes in the final years of the…

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Was it John Major’s fury that turned the tide?

Was it John Major’s fury that turned the tide?

Did his intervention change the mood in Gord’s election U-turn week? On the final day of Gordon Brown’s first year as PM the media look-back continues with an excellent breakdown by Patrick Wintour and Nicholas Watt in the Guardian of the events that led to that fateful decision to abandon a November 1st 2007 general election. Step-by-step each move during September and early October is examined and the authors come to a view that I have not seen before –…

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Will “Gordon Conservatives” rise again?

Will “Gordon Conservatives” rise again?

Has Brown the strength to reclaim the word STRONG? It’s hard to credit it now but in those heady days of the final week of September 2007 Labour party spinners were putting it about that their polling had discovered a new type of voter that they termed “Gordon Conservatives”. These were people, it was claimed, who had voted Tory in 2005 but had then decided to support Brown’s changed Labour party On September 24th 2007 Ben Brogan reported: “Remember the…

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How encouraging is this MORI poll for David Davis?

How encouraging is this MORI poll for David Davis?

Nearly three electors in five say they would vote for him A new Ipsos-MORI telephone poll for the Independent this morning has what seem to be contradictory conclusions over David Davis’s move last week. On the one hand the national survey found that respondents would give him strong support if they were able to vote in the forthcoming by-election. But on the issue of whether he was right or not there’s a different conclusion. In the poll carried out from…

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ICM poll finds big H&H boost for Davis

ICM poll finds big H&H boost for Davis

Mail on Sunday …and Labour MPs say they will support the Tory’s stand? An ICM for the Mail on Sunday taken on Friday of adults in Haltemprice and Howden, shows massive support for the area’s MP as he seeks to resign his seat and fight a by election over Gordon’s move to increase to six weeks the length of time suspects can be held without trial. The main findings are summarised in the panel above. Asked how they would vote…

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Will Labour be out of power for as long as last time?

Will Labour be out of power for as long as last time?

Could Dave beat Maggie’s 11 years at Number 10? As we face the real prospect of a change of government it is a sobering thought that these days parties stay in office for quite considerable periods of time. Labour will have been there for 13 years assuming they go on until 2010. Before that, of course, the Tories went on from 1979 right through until 1997 – a total of eighteen years. For once confidence in a party of government…

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Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Is there anything Labour can do to stem the tide?

Will Gordon look more secure after today? Ten days on from the Crewe & Nantwich by-election and MPs return to Westminster today after their long spring break. This will be the first chance many Labour members will have had to talk face to face with parliamentary colleagues about the challenges facing the party and the prospects for the next general election. What will mood be like? Will Gordon feel a tad safer after today? My guess is that he will…

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