Browsed by
Category: Tories

Is Nick Cohen right – the election will be a “massacre”?

Is Nick Cohen right – the election will be a “massacre”?

Comments 0 Comment

Will his 2009 PB prediction be as good as his 2007 one? In the week of the 2007 Labour conference, on September 28 2007, the Observer columnist and writer, Nick Cohen, made an extraordinary prediction in a comment that he posted here on Politicalbetting when general election speculation was at its height. Nick wrote: “My colleagues think that if Brown backs off after marching his men to the top off the hill the commentariat will turn on him. The press…

Read More Read More

OCT ’07 FLASHBACK: Another great TV clash

OCT ’07 FLASHBACK: Another great TV clash

Comments 0 Comment

Did Balls think the election was still on? While we are going though a very quiet period with almost no political betting going on I thought it worth concentrating further on that first week of October 2007 which we might look back upon as the period that defined Labour’s third term. The clash in the clip was of a discussion before the non-election announcement. What I find striking is how pumped up Ed Balls was – even more so than…

Read More Read More

Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

Are constituency primaries the pattern for the future?

Comments 0 Comment

BBC online Is this a way of reconnecting with the voters? The result of the Conservative Totnes primary was announced this lunchtime and the big number that will be looked at is the 24.6% turnout. This puts it on par with what we saw last year in the US presidential primaries and gives the winner a very different mandate from those selected as parliamentary by standard selection procedures. Here it’s almost always in the hands of local parties with, in…

Read More Read More

Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

Could an Irish “YES” revive the Tory EU nightmare?

Comments 0 Comment

Is tolerating Lisbon the price for power? On Friday October 2nd, just before the Conservatives gather for their last conference before the general election, the Irish vote in their second referendum on the Lisbon EU treaty having rejected it first time round. A NO vote would be brilliant for the Tories because Lisbon would then be rejected with the UK having “clean hands”. But if the betting markets have got this right then the outcome will be a YES and,…

Read More Read More

Is Hillary’s campaign chief right about Brown’s chances?

Is Hillary’s campaign chief right about Brown’s chances?

Comments 0 Comment

PR Week But has Brown got it within him to do what’s required? This week’s edition of PR Week has an interesting interview with one of the world’s most highly paid political strategists – Mark Penn, global CEO of Burson-Marsteller – in which he holds up some hope for Labour? He’s quoted as saying: “Voters can and do take a second and even third look at their leaders. Tory leader David Cameron has hit a barrier, and a lot of…

Read More Read More

Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

Are these the figures that undermine the UNS?

Comments 0 Comment

YouGov Just look at how Lib Dem supporters are splitting The forced choice question that appears above is one that’s been included in the Telegraph’s monthly YouGov poll for several years now and I think is probably a good guide to potential tactical voting. For this asks simply: “If you had to choose which would you prefer to see after the next election a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Gordon Brown?”. For me…

Read More Read More

Why do family connections seem to matter with Labour?

Why do family connections seem to matter with Labour?

Comments 0 Comment

Is the party vulnerable to charges of nepotism? There’s an interesting article by Jeff Randall in the Telegraph this morning which explores the extent to which “which blood ties and marriages” seem to matter so much within the top echelons on the Labour party. He notes: that the Labour cabinet includes “…the Miliband brothers, Edward and David; the husband-and-wife team, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper, daughter of Prospect’s former general secretary; Harriet Harman, the niece of Lord Longford (a former…

Read More Read More

July 30 2005: When Dave was recognised by just 6% of voters

July 30 2005: When Dave was recognised by just 6% of voters

Comments 0 Comment

Looking back at the Populus poll that’s four years old today Just four years ago today the Times published the findings of an online poll in which those participating were presented with a series of pictures featuring prominent politicians, asking who they were and what their job was. To put the political situation at the time into context the end July 2005 voting intention polls had:- YouGov CON 31: LAB 40: LD 21 Populus CON 28: LAB 40: LD 22…

Read More Read More