CON 40 (+4) LAB 25 (+1) LD 22 (+5) All parties see increases from BPIX/YouGov Thanks to “Me” on the ICM thread for picking up today’s BPIX/YouGov poll in the Mail on Sunday. The shares above are compared with the last poll from the firm which appeared on August 23rd and had a massive 23% share for others. It seemed out of line then but this latest poll is very much showing the same picture as the other post-Lib Dem…
BBC news programmes search results Is it simply the “Cameron being invisible” effect again? It’s more than three and a half years since I put forward the theory that a key driver of the voting intention poll numbers is the level of coverage that David Cameron has been getting on the TV in the week or so before the survey’s fieldwork takes place. What’s interesting is that this seems to hold good even if the story is a negative one….
Can Pickles entice Lib Dems into voting Tory? This week I’ve been on holiday in Hadrian’s Wall country in Northumberland away from a fast internet connection so I have been unable to catch up on what seems to have been the political broadcasting highlight – the encounter on the Today programme between Tory Chairman, Eric Pickles, and the prominent Lib Dem, Chris Huhne. See this from Harry Phibbs in the Guardian for the details and a description of Chris Huhne’s…
UKPollingReport Could the party of “fair votes” support the vote losers? One of the hardy annuals of Lib Dem conference week is that people start asking which way Clegg’s party would go in the event of a hung parliament and they held the balance of power. But is this totally irrelevant? For the way the electoral mathematics work means that Labour would only need Lib Dem support for a commons majority if it came behind the Tories in terms of…
CON 43 (+2) LAB 26 (+1) LD 19 (nc) And the “others” total drop to just 12% The September ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows the Tories up a couple of points with Labour up one – all within the margin of error. So the September polling is following August and we are seeing very little change. Perhaps the significant move is the decreasing share for “other” parties which has been at a high level since…
Is this result down to the question wording? A ComRes poll of Lib Dem councillors for BBC2’s Daily Politics has produced rather predictable results about attitudes of what they would like to see the party doing if there was, indeed, a hung parliament. It found that 31% would like the party to support Labour against 16% who said the Tories. rather than the Tories (16%) in the event of a hung Parliament. The question, however, left a lot to be…
Indy on Sunday Would things look so good with a different leader? John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday (HatTip Wibbler on previous thread) raises something that I’ve been meaning to look at for some time – the over-reliance that the Tories have on their leader, David Cameron. Just look at the historical polls – both voting intention and approval ratings – and its clear that the party has not been led in recent times by anybody who connects in…
More detail from Populus adds to the gloom It was almost exactly three years ago, while Tony Blair was still Labour leader, that I did a thread – “Why can’t Gordon do the “sincerity thingâ€? – on Brown’s inability to sound convincing when it is clear that he is telling porkies. I suggested that this was his greatest weakness. That observed that for much of the time, of course, politics is about organised hypocrisy and that “a key quality in…