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Category: Theresa May

If the S Mirror’s right about TMay’s exit date then the 2/1 on Betfair is a great punt

If the S Mirror’s right about TMay’s exit date then the 2/1 on Betfair is a great punt

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TMay planning to quit as PM on Aug 30 2019 that is if there's not a move against her earlier as there could https://t.co/h1gfWAmLKN — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 26, 2017 As August starts to wind up and we enter normal politics again a big story this morning is the one above in the Sunday Mirror suggesting that Theresa May has set the end of August 2019 as the time when she will cease to be Party leader and presumably…

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Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

Johnson’s refusal to back his boss on student immigration will surely lead to recriminations

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Is Johnson on manoeuvres? His refusal to back PM on immigration data looks interesting https://t.co/AAoXqydrmv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 25, 2017 Get ready for an intense 6 weeks of politicking We are nearly at the end of August and only weeks away from the conferences of the main parties. The most interesting one will be the Tories in Manchester which could just might be the prelude to a leadership challenge and contest. Mrs. May called the election three year…

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Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

Theresa’s Tories still being hit by the GE2017 branding gamble

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No post election poll has matched the CON election share which itself was seen as a disappointment It was noticing the photograph above of the Conservative battle bus at the general election that reminded me what a huge gamble the blue team made at the last election by putting everything on Theresa May. Notice that on the bus the words Conservative or Tory don’t appear. The election was going to be all about Theresa but as it turned out by…

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When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

When TMay apologists try to excuse her GE17 humiliation by bragging about increased CON vote share show them this chart

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It’s the relationship with the LAB vote that matters In the run up to the CON conference at the start of October you are going to hear a lot about about how the Tory national vote share on June 8th went up to levels higher than Mrs Thatcher achieved with the implication that it wasn’t quite as bad as might appear. This is a desperate effort to try to whitewash TMay’s disastrous decision to go to the country three years…

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In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

In spite of her general election humiliation TMay still leads in the “who’d make the best PM” polling

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Corbyn isn’t seen as an alternative There’s little doubt that if the general election had been on May 4th, local election day, then Mrs. May would have got her landslide. The general election polling that was coming out at the time with leads of 15%/20% was broadly reflected in the way that the country voted in the range of elections on that day. The build up to that Thursday, and her dramatic visit to the Palace on May 3rd and…

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David Davis still firm favourite to succeed TMay while Johnson slips to 5th

David Davis still firm favourite to succeed TMay while Johnson slips to 5th

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The latest CON leadership betting David Davis 18% Phillip Hammond 9% Jacob Rees-Mogg 9% Amber Rudd 9% Boris Johnson 8% Ruth Davidson 5% Damian Green 4% This is based on last trades on Betfair. What will ignite this market is any suggestion in the run-up or at conference in the first week of October that a challenge could be mounted to TMay. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th but that comes at a price

Ruth Davidson’s Scottish successes saved TMay’s bacon on June 8th but that comes at a price

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The mathematics of the Tory power struggle The chart is very simple but illustrates clearly why Scottish Conservative leader feels able to to put pressure on TMay over the PM’s hardline immigration rhetoric. Davidson is making a pro-immigration argument that’s rarely heard from a Conservative. She says ‘with the country on the road to full employment, potential for growth is facing ever greater limitations’ without the boost from immigrants. The Scottish Conservative leader attacks May for her “easy slogans” on…

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The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

The Tories needs to resolve divisions soon because divided parties struggle at election time

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One of the things that we know from previous elections is that parties that are seen to be divided can get punished by the voters. That was John Major’s fate at GE1997 after five difficult years of one split after another. The current situation, as seen in the recent YouGov polling illustrated in the chart and touched on in this week’s podcast, looks challenging and could be hugely problematical if there is the need for an early election. This, of…

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