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New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

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Some bookies tighten the YES betting price There’s been a flurry of betting activity on the IndyRef overnight with William Hill reporting a fair bit of money going on YES which has resulted in them tightening the price from 5/1 to 9/2. Maybe this was driven in part by news filtering out of the latest polling, from Survation, which has the big picture remaining the same but with fewer people now saying that they don’t know. The pollster, alongside ICM…

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In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

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Jacques Parizrau, Quebec PM & leader of Parti Québécois resigned in 1995 the day after his referendum defeat pic.twitter.com/VEcUryX2vv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2014 NON won by just over 1% As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of…

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What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

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Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011. Just look…

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Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

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Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014 Time is running out for YES The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb. In a campaign that is…

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England’s early exit has strengthened No

England’s early exit has strengthened No

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The World Cup will all be forgotten by September And so England will head home from the World Cup after the first round for the first time since 1958.  The result may be disappointing for England fans even if the standard of play – bar a few lapses – was generally better than expected.  Lapses, however, count dearly at this level.  How the results are seen in other parts of the UK is another matter.  In large parts of Wales…

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Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

Trying to call the Scottish Independence Referendum has become a nightmare with so much variation between the pollsters

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One thing’s for sure – NO is not a certainty There’s a new YouGov IndyRef poll out overnght which has, after the exclusion of the DKs, NO with a comfortable 20% lead. This is exactly in line with the average of YouGov IndyRef polls so far this year. This latest survey is in marked contrast to the Panelbase, Survation, and ICM polls of recent days which have all shown a narrowing of the gap. Above is a chart based on…

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Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

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And ICM finds that the vote’s dividing 42% of Scottish families Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs, YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%. The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap. A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still…

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The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

The guy who this week wagered £400k at 1 to 4 on an IndyRef NO might feel a tad nervous following new poll

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Panelbase IndyRef poll for YES Scotland has the gap down to just 4 percent Three days after it was reported that a man in SW London backed an IndyRef NO with £400,000 at 1/4 there’s a new poll which has the gap at just 4% It was commissioned by Yes Scotland. The pollster is the Northumberland-based, Pabelbase, which in the past has produced the best figures for YES. Tonight’s poll is broadly in line with the recent Survation survey that…

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