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Category: Referendum

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

The Scottish IndyRef is set to be the biggest non-general election UK political betting event ever

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Betfair chart showing build up of betting interest in the #IndyRef set to be biggest ever non GE political gamble pic.twitter.com/Cx9WKkh7Ww — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2014 The chart above from Betfair fits in with messages coming from the traditional bookies about the huge betting interest in the September 18th Scottish referendum. I track this daily and have been amazed that this far out there has been so much activity. Generally in election markets 90%+ of all bets are…

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New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

New IndyRef poll from Survation sees more Scottish people making up their minds but overall picture staying the same

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Some bookies tighten the YES betting price There’s been a flurry of betting activity on the IndyRef overnight with William Hill reporting a fair bit of money going on YES which has resulted in them tightening the price from 5/1 to 9/2. Maybe this was driven in part by news filtering out of the latest polling, from Survation, which has the big picture remaining the same but with fewer people now saying that they don’t know. The pollster, alongside ICM…

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Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

Two new Scottish referendum polls have the gap getting closer

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And ICM finds that the vote’s dividing 42% of Scottish families Two new referendum polls this weekend see the gap between YES and NO getting narrower. ICM for Scotland on Sunday has, after the exclusion of DKs, YES up 3 to 45% with NO down 3 to 55%. The Panelbase poll for YES Scotland, reported earlier, had a 4% gap. A feature of both polls is that women are becoming less hostile to the notion of independence. They are still…

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Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

Latest EU referendum polling suggests that the outcome would be far from a foregone conclusion

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Four CON voters in 10 currently say they’d vote to stay It is a long time since I’ve looked at EU referendum polling and today’s numbers from YouGov rather surprised me. The gap between EXIT and STAY is getting closer and the party splits are not quite as you’d imagine. Of course there is no referendum on the agenda at the moment and I doubt whether Ed Miliband will promise one in the fifteen months that remain until GE2015. If…

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Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

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Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014   PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…

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All the weekend polls: Round up

All the weekend polls: Round up

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Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

The currency question just got harder for Yes this week

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What’s the point of independence if you have to give up your sovereignty? Two years ago, two-thirds of Scottish voters would have voted for independence if it made them £500 a year better off.  That support dropped to just 21% if they would be left £500 a year down.  We shouldn’t regard those figures as gospel – putting the emphasis so heavily on one factor in the question will probably exaggerate the effect in the results – but there’s no…

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Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

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On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind. Now I’ve had a chance to look at the detail and the above findings stand out – whether voters mght change their mind broken down by which party they supported in the 2011 Holyrood elections. On the voting question LAB voters from 2011 split 28% YES to 72%. LDs were…

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