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The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

The PB June poll average: LDs slump, CON flatlines, LAB edges up

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For the first time there are now two Kippers for every Lib Dem You might expect that the polls for the first month after the Euro-elections would show a drift of support back to the main three Westminster parties, as UKIP and the minor parties receded in media and campaigning prominence.  If so, you’d be wrong.  The June figures, with changes on May are: Lab 34.3 (+0.6), Con 31.4 (-0.1), UKIP 15.8 (+0.8), LD 7.9 (-1.5) All three parties are…

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The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

The debate over Scottish Indyref polling methodologies: Survation puts its case

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By Patrick Briône Director of Research, Survation This week Peter Kellner, President of YouGov, published an article both on YouGov’s website and in The Times newspaper, with his views on why opinion polls in Scotland by different polling companies have produced consistently divergent results on the question of the Scottish independence referendum. His argument was that YouGov’s polling in Scotland was superior to that of Survation (and other polling companies) due to other companies weighting results to 2011 vote, which…

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In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

In the Quebec referendum of 1995 OUI had a 6% lead on polling day

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Jacques Parizrau, Quebec PM & leader of Parti Québécois resigned in 1995 the day after his referendum defeat pic.twitter.com/VEcUryX2vv — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 3, 2014 NON won by just over 1% As has been said repeatedly there is no previous UK polling experience to be able to judge the Scottish IndyRef. We do have as a reference point Quebec in September 1995 when the polls moved from NON to OUI in the final weeks and finished with margins of…

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What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

What’s keeping YES hopes alive in the #IndyRef – the polling experience of Holyrood 2011

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Why I'm not going all-in betting on NO in #IndyRef Look at difference between final polls & result Holyrood 2011 pic.twitter.com/yX6YZ2Y9M6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 2, 2014 Whenever I take part in an event I always get asked what I think is going to happen in Scotland. Generally I say that the polls are looking good for those who want to retain the union but I have a nagging doubt based on the Holyrood elections in 2011. Just look…

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Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

Lord Ashcroft has not unexpected gloomy news for the LDs in the battles where they are most vulnerable to LAB

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Voting intention in my LD-Lab marginals poll, plus Brighton Pavilion: pic.twitter.com/lfGWEXSPAo — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 Labour set for gains as Lib Dem vote share halves in key marginals – my latest battleground polling on @ConHome: http://t.co/JpVP0KdkuP — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 My poll of four seats on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, at a glance: pic.twitter.com/OilW2apAKd — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) July 1, 2014 But the choice of seats ignores the interesting battles Sorry about the delay…

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Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the NO lead getting bigger

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Latest #indyref poll for Times from YouGov has YES 35 (-1) NO 54 (+1) DK/WNV 11 pic.twitter.com/U5c7YKUreP — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2014 Time is running out for YES The big thing about today’s Indy Ref poll by YouGov for the Times is not that there’s been a slight increase in the NO lead but that the referendum election day, September 18th, is getting closer and YES still, apparently, has a mountain to climb. In a campaign that is…

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A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

A Juncker boost for DC? Latest Ashcroft phone poll sees the Tories back in the lead

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Tories take lead in new Ashcroft phone poll Con 33%, Lab 31%, Lib Dem 9%, UKIP 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Ashcroft poll changes on last week CON 33 +5 LAB 31 -2 LD 9= UKIP 15 -2 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 The 5% increase in CON share in Ashcroft poll is outside the margin of error. Is DC's Juncker's stance giving him a boost? — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2014 Even though LAB would be behind on…

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Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

Why UKIP could be heading for a general election share in the 10-15% range

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If that happens it’s seriously bad news for Dave At a Political Studies Association briefing that I attended before the May 22nd Euros Prof Jane Green of Manchester University announced that British Election Study (BES) poll data sampled in February and March found that 57.6% of those planning to vote UKIP in the Euros also intended to vote for the party at GE2015. Why we should take this poll finding seriously is what happened five years ago when it gave…

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