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Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

Why LAB wins more seats with fewer votes : The way First Past the Post works in its favour

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Understanding Labour’s “other crutch” We’ve talked a lot on PB about Labour’s “electoral crutch” – the big shift to it since 2010 of Lib Dem voters which has so far remained. Well Labour has another crutch – the electoral system which could be equally or even more important. UK general elections are not decided by aggregate national vote shares but by FPTP elections in 650 separate seats where voters choose which individuals they want as their MPs. Unlike the Euro…

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If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

If the “ICM August polls before general elections” rule works again then Ed Miliband is home and dry

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Look at the record for when LAB is in the lead Five years ago I made a comment on PB that August polls should not be trusted because of the holiday effect and got into an email exchange with Nick Sparrow – then head of polling for ICM. He pointed out the following from his firm’s record over several general elections which on the face of it looks convincing. August 1996 ICM poll had LAB ahead by 12%. The result…

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The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

The August ICM poll sees reverse cross-over with LAB moving from a 1% deficit to a 7% lead

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And the inevitable “what if Boris was CON leader” questions Tonight’s big polling news is that Labour has moved up sharply in the monthly ICM phone poll for the Guardian. In July EdM’s party was 1% behind. Now they are 7% ahead. I must admit that I’m rather surprised by these latest findings and was expecting both main parties to be just about level-pegging. We’ll have to wait till the full data is out before we can work out what’s…

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Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

Another cross-over gets reversed – but could ICM, expected tonight, have a consecutive CON lead?

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This could be a highly unusual polling day for the two firms to be reporting both had the Tories in the lead last time out. A couple of hours ago Populus online moved from a 1% CON lead on Friday to a 4% LAB one now. Later in the day I’m hoping that we should see the ICM Guardian poll which in July had CON 34. LAB 33, LD 12, UKIP 9. I’ve not had confirmation yet that this will…

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YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

YouGov’s IndyRef NO lead grows even though the firm’s tweaked its methodology to make it more favourable to YES

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@MSmithsonPB still not helping 😉 pic.twitter.com/wI2FAzgrUz — Steve Sayers (@stevesayers1) August 11, 2014 New YouGov I#ndyRef poll for Sun has NO lead up 1 NO 55%+1 YES -35% DK 10%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Excluding don't knows tonight's Sun #IndyRef poll is 61% NO to 39% YES — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 Fieldwork straddled last Tuesday’s Darling-Salmond debate There’s a new IndyRef poll out from YouGov – the firm which has generally been showing bigger NO leads and…

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Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

Lifting the Margin of Error Safety Blanket

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The trend is still your friend > “All changes are within the margin of error”.  It’s a frequently heard line, usually trotted out by those sympathetic to a party whose share has just declined, or by those keen to fence-sit.  While it may be true (and it usually is: only six of the 600 or so poll-to-poll changes across the four parties in this year’s YouGov series have been more than 3%, for example, and then only by a single…

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Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

Detailed data from the YouGov/ST polls finds that fewer current CON voters would back party if Boris was leader

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YouGov/ST Boris polling finds that FEWER current CON voters would back party with Boris as leader (HT @georgeeaton) pic.twitter.com/gIvB2FZDTb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 The mayor attracts votes as well as turning some off Thanks to George Eaton at the New Statesman for picking this up. A Boris-led Tory party could lead to fewer current CON voters backing the party. Looking at the detail in the table above we see that there’s a 5% drop amongst current CON…

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The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

The polling that suggests that Boris could play a part in winning back CON voters from UKIP

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Today 's YouGov S Times polling showing the appeal of Boris to UKIP voters pic.twitter.com/1TplGaV3lm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 10, 2014 But he’s not seen as being up to job of being PM 36% tell YouGov that Boris would be up to the job of PM, 43% say he would not. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 9, 2014 YouGov S Times poll with named leaders finds that CON would do 1% better with Boris rather than Dave. — Mike…

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