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Category: Polls

Here’s a funny thing. Polls that carry out fieldwork online are 3-9 points more favourable to the “big 2” than phone surveys

Here’s a funny thing. Polls that carry out fieldwork online are 3-9 points more favourable to the “big 2” than phone surveys

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The big methodology difference is in sampling. The phone firms used randomised dialling and theoretically anybody with a landline, and now mobile, can be included. Online polls are generally carried out amongst members of a polling panel who perhaps are slightly different from the electorate as a whole in they’ve signed up in the first place and are doing the survey for money. It was only when I was looking through recent findings from the different firms that I found…

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New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

New Survation/UNITE poll has CON holding onto Stockton S where it’s defending a majority of just 310

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New Survation/Unite poll in Stockton S has CON MP James Wharton holding on by 2% to one of the most marginal seats in the country — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 The split Survation/Unite Stockton S poll CON 39% (0), LAB 37% (-1), LD 3% (-12), UKIP 18% (+15) — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2014 Survation Unite Stockton S poll NOT past voted weighted. 48. 2% of sample were 2010 CON voters when actual figure was 38.9% —…

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Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

Survation finds dramatic LAB collapse in Scotland but not on the scale of Ipsos-MORI in October

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What we need now are Scottish constituency polls The second part of the Daily Record Survation poll of Scottish voters was published overnight and finds a big increase in SNP support since the IndyRef with an even bigger drop in the Labour share. It doesn’t really need to be said that the prospect of losing a significant part of its current base of 41 seats North of the border is going to make Labour’s challenge at the General Election that…

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For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

For the first time in a month the Ashcroft National phone poll has LAB in the lead

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Ashcroft becomes the 4th pollster in a row to have LAB ahead All the movements are very small and well within the margin of error but it will come as a relief in Miliband towers that the national VI polls seem to be moving back to LAB. The shares vary considerably across the firms no more so than today. Just look at the chart to see the very real differences between Ashcroft and Populus – the latter having a CON+LAB…

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Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up to 4%

Some relief for LAB/Ed with ComRes online as lead moves up to 4%

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LAB 34%= CON 30%-1 UKIP 19%= LD 8%+1 GRN 3%-1 So only very slight movement well within the margin of error in voting intentions. The findings from the poll that I’ve highlighted in the chart are on perceptions of Dave which I think get to the heart of the challenges for both leaders. People can’t imagine Ed at Number 10 while Dave is not seen as someone who stand up for working people. Also the perception is that a CON…

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The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

The big and only real question is how the changes in the national mood are playing out in the marginals

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pic.twitter.com/Ddrv9Y1o56 — PolPics (@PolPics) November 14, 2014 Have seats that were in LAB’s grasp now fallen away There’s no doubt that this has been a dramatic polling week with apparently a move from LAB that is changing the long established view that the red team was heading for victory. But these are national polls of 1,000 sample sizes for phone surveys and up to 2,000 for online ones. What we need to see before jumping to conclusions is whether the…

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Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

Beware the over-prompting of Mark Reckless and UKIP in Rochester by-election polls

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"@cgi247: Mark Reckless on the campaign trail in Rochester #UKIP pic.twitter.com/qUcjwth85k" — Mark Reckless (@MarkReckless) November 4, 2014 The intro to voting questions in the Ashcroft poll As you may know, the Member of Parliament for Rochester & Strood, Mark Reckless, has announced that he is leaving the Conservative Party and joining the UK Independence Party (UKIP). He has therefore decided to resign as an MP and to fight the resulting by-election in Rochester & Strood as the UKIP candidate….

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