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Category: Polls

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

PB’s November Poll Average: Labour down again but it’s Others on the up

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The Con-Lab gap drops to just 1% – the closest it’s been since Jan 2012 Convention says that as an election approaches, the public will put aside their flirtation with protest parties and return to the serious business of choosing a government for the country. Well, convention be damned. Five months today will be the last day of campaigning before the General Election yet far from returning to the traditional Westminster parties, voters continue to leave them in ever greater…

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The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

The extraordinary impact of Lord Ashcroft’s two stage voting question – keeping LD hopes alive

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Why the party that’s lost ¾ of its vote isn’t panicking One of the remarkable features of the past four and a half years of the coalition is that the party that appears to have suffered so much, the Lib Dems, has not panicked and appears to just shrug off one miserable national poll rating after another. This morning’s YouGov once again has them in fifth place behind with just 7% drastically down on the 23.7% GB share at GE10….

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There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

There’s no evidence from the constituency polling of a first time bonus for CON incumbents

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This is NOT something that the blue team can rely on One of the great hopes for the Tories just five months from the general election is that in the key battlegrounds with LAB, those where they won in 2010, incumbent MPs standing again will enjoy a bonus. Some commentators have put this at as much as 3% and then sought to do seat calculations based on this applying to every CON defence. It is certainly true that first time…

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There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

There’s nothing Farage could do about this this but Nick Griffin backing UKIP isn’t good news for the purples

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Just what Farage didn't want. Ex-MEP & BNP leader, Nick Griffin, says he's now supporting UKIP http://t.co/EYq16a4jg9 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014 Vote #UKIP to kick Cameron…but don't be fooled by Toryboy Nigel. pic.twitter.com/GRTLaUPJqi — Nick Griffin (@nickjgriffinbnp) November 28, 2014 Meanwhile Farage’s price in Thanet S continues to weaken PaddyPower http://t.co/49a6vU4VyB ease odds further on UKIP/Farage in Thanet South betting. Was 4/11 – now 5/6 pic.twitter.com/l0M0ZNIbzU — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2014

From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

From YouGov: How would Jesus view immigration, gay marriage, renationalising the railways and the death penalty

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Don't quite know what to make of this YouGov polling. How would Jesus view immigration & gay marriage? pic.twitter.com/OqnrugmJ9k — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 By 38%-6% the YouGov sample say Jesus would support the renationalisation of the railways. 49% said he'd oppose death penalty, 17% support — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 26, 2014 The polling’s certainly unique though I’m unsure about what it tells us

The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

The Ashcroft phone poll, like Populus this morning, has CON trailing by 5%

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But these are the most dramatic figures of all In England where 533 of the 650 seats are @LordAshcroft has CON 28 LAB 34 LD 6 UKIP 22 GRN 8 So UKIP just 6% behind CON — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 24, 2014 This is starting to get serious for the blue team As usual at 4pm on Monday Lord Ashcroft publishes his latest weekly national phone poll and today’s show the LAB lead moving to 5%. The followed this morning’s Monday Populus online poll that…

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How online polls are producing higher LAB and UKIP shares while phone surveys are best for the LDs and Greens

How online polls are producing higher LAB and UKIP shares while phone surveys are best for the LDs and Greens

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CON is about the same under either approach After my post last night on how there is a big gap between phone and online polling on the CON+LAB aggregates I decided to take this a bit further looking at how each party fared under each approach. The results, based on the last public polls of nine firms, are featured in the chart above. Essentially LAB and UKIP do better with the online polling while the LDs and Greens come out…

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Daily Express reporting new poll with UKIP in second place

Daily Express reporting new poll with UKIP in second place

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Daily Express reporting on its front page that UKIP in SECOND place in new poll. No details of the pollster. pic.twitter.com/rOQHv6Goeq — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2014 No other details known at the moment UPDATE Could the ExprEss poll be this Sun readers' survey which IS NOT A PROPER POLL. Known in business as a "voodoo poll" pic.twitter.com/M6DwP7KT7T — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 23, 2014 2nd Update 0430 The poll appears to be based on a subset of Sun…

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