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The three 4% CON lead polls this week cannot all be dismissed as outliers

The three 4% CON lead polls this week cannot all be dismissed as outliers

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What should be making LAB feel a tad uneasy is the three polls this week with 4% CON leads pic.twitter.com/fxaCDj1f1u — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2015 But only 1 CON lead from YouGov in a fortnight The final poll to come out last night, YouGov’s 2% LAB lead, will have eased some nerves amongst the red team. But inevitably they should be worrying about the fact that we have now had 3 surveys in 6 days which have had…

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The Thursday pollercoaster continues

The Thursday pollercoaster continues

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LAB increase lead with YouGov – Labour have a two-point lead in tonight's YouGov CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 New Survation poll boost for Farage in South Thanet New Thanet S poll by Survation funded by Alan Bown has Farage with 9% leadUKIP 39%CON 30.3%LAB 26.3%LD 1.7% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 Amazing. 18.5% of UKIP voters in Survation Thanet S pol say they've met Farage…

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A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night

A Marf cartoon at the start of what’ll be a busy polling night

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UPDATE Survation/Mirror poll has CON 4% ahead DailyMirror @Survation poll (was embargoed to 7pm) CON 33; LAB 29; LD 10; UKIP 18; SNP 4; GRE 4 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 LAB had 29.7% share in 2010. Tonight's Survation/Mirror poll has them on 29%. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 23, 2015 First up this afternoon was Panelbase Panelbase has 3% LAB leadLAB 34% (NC), CON 31% (-2%), UKIP 17% (+1), LD 7% (-1), GRN 4% (NC) — Mike…

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Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time PB Poll Average score

Marf for the evening and David Herdson with the half-time PB Poll Average score

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But it’s still very much in knife-edge territory The profusion of election-period polls means that it’s now possible to produce a PB poll average figure for shorter periods than before. Consequently, I’ve split the period from April 1 to May 6 into two parts and am using these instead, the first of which is for the scores for up to April 21: Con 34.5 (n/c) Lab 33.7 (-0.4) UKIP 11.4 (-0.8) LD 8.5 (+0.6) Grn 5.8 (+0.1) Oth 6.1 (+0.4)…

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New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

New ComRes battleground polling finds UKIP struggling in its key targets

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This does not bode well for Farage in Thanet South South Thanet Boston and Skegness Thurrock Forest of Dean Great Yarmouth North Thanet East Worthing and Shoreham Sittingbourne and Sheppey South Basildon and East Thurrock Castle Point A new ComRes/ITV news battleground seats poll finds the Tories holding on reasonably well in 10 seats which UKIP has made key targets. Like in the similar poll last week of LD defences in the SW the pollster has not named candidates which…

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New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

New study points to UKIP’s support base being more middle class than was perceived

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British Electoral Study data sheds different light on the party An analysis of data from the UK’s longest-running study of electoral behaviour has revealed how the bulk of UKIP’s support surprisingly comes from professional and managerial middle classes. British Election Study Co-Director Professor Geoffrey Evans and BES Research Fellow Dr Jonathan Mellon, from Nuffield College Oxford, say contrary to the popular view advocated by some academic researchers, working class voters are only a little more likely to support Ukip. And…

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These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

These ICM sub-samples are very small but the detail of this breakdown is fascinating

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ICM Unlimited Inevitably when you have a 1,000 sample poll and then adjust for turnout after taking out the don’t knows the numbers you are left with can get very small. But I love the way ICM, in its general election datasets, is now breaking down constituencies by specific types. The group where there’s the biggest variation across the different seat types are those saying they’ll vote Lib Dem. Notice how in the final column, the CON-LAB marginals, we get…

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The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

The Monday afternoon rolling polling blog

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Mondays are always a big day polling day. First off was Populus with a slight up-tick for LAB. This afternoon we’ll have ICM, which last week had a 6% CON lead, and Ashcroft. This evening there will be the daily YouGov. UPDATE Ashcroft national 4% CON lead + 2 new Scots polls @LordAshcroft national poll has CON 4% ahead pic.twitter.com/lVhz610Fob — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 20, 2015 Ashcroft Edinburgh S SNP ahead but close pic.twitter.com/P0qq9jjggY — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April…

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