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ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

ORB/Indy poll finds that 76% think that LAB less electable now than it was on May 7th

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The front page of tomorrow's I pic.twitter.com/2fkFD2SRqT — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 27, 2015 But does this poll really tell us anything? An ORB poll for the Independent carried out over the weekend finds that 76% of those who had a view believe that LAB is less electable now than it was at the general election. We’ve not yet seen the dataset or the precise question wording but the overall picture looks gloomy for the red team and sets out…

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Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

Why getting a credible leader is so important to LAB: YouGov polling on why the party lost

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The data that underlines the importance of the current election Whichever of the four ins he/she will have to be perceived a lot better than Ed was if the red team is to have any chance whatsoever. This polling should be at the heart of the leadership campaign. A non-credible leader means a likely third consecutive general election defeat. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

YouGov Poll: Why Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win

YouGov Poll: Why Corbyn is winning but still unlikely to win

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Keiran Pedley on the sensational survey for the Times Last night, YouGov released a poll on the Labour leadership that has thrown something of a hand grenade into the contest. After rumours that private polling was showing Jeremy Corbyn ahead we now have a poll showing exactly that. In fact, the first preference numbers in this poll are: CORBYN 43% BURNHAM 26% COOPER 20% KENDALL 11% Not only does Corbyn win on first preferences (and by a country mile) but…

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The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

The British Election Study suggests that differential turnout the most likely cause of the GE2015 polling failure

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LAB supporters more likely to have overstated certainty to vote There’s an important paper just out from the British Election Study on what went wrong with the polls on May 7th. Why did it happen? The report by Jon Mellon and Chris Prosser does not give much credence to the “late swing”, “don’t knows” and “shy Tory” theories and argues that differential turnout was most to blame. Those over-stating their likelihood to vote were more likely to be those saying…

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Keiran Pedley says Tessa Jowell looks set to become LAB’s candidate for London Mayor

Keiran Pedley says Tessa Jowell looks set to become LAB’s candidate for London Mayor

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Those that read the Evening Standard will know that YouGov has a new poll out on which Labour hopeful would make the best candidate for London Mayor. As we might expect, the Standard has run with the line ‘David Lammy leaps to second place in Labour’s mayoral candidate race’ but we should be careful when jumping to conclusions. Once ‘don’t knows’ and ‘none of these’ are excluded, the sample size for this poll is just n=460. This is a perfectly…

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It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

It wasn’t just at the May 2015 general election that the polling did not cover itself with glory

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September 2010: Final LAB members leadership poll YouGov LAB members poll Sept ’10 YouGov 1st round Actual 1st round YouGov Miliband preference Actual final votes ABBOTT, Diane 11 7.3 0 0 BALLS, Ed 9 10.1 0 0 BURNHAM, Andy 10 8.6 0 0 MILIBAND, David 38 44.1 48 54.4 MILIBAND, Ed 31 29.9 52 45.6 What should be noted about this poll was that it took place six days after the postal ballot packs had gone out and for many…

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