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Category: Polls

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

Huge variation opens up in the polling for November’s US MidTerms

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RealClearPolitics The US phone-online survey divide By far the biggest elections that we know are taking place this year are the November US midterms when the whole of the House of Representatives is up for election and about a third of the Senate. The main national picture in the polling is seen in the data in the RealClear Politics data above – the 2018 Generic Congressional Vote where we have seen two almost totally contradictory polls in the past couple…

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TMay in third place as “best PM” in latest YouGov London poll

TMay in third place as “best PM” in latest YouGov London poll

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Best PM? NOTA 36% Corbyn 31% May 24% Cable 9% London Local elections voting CON 28 LAB 54 LD 11 London GE voting intenton LAB 53% CON 33% LD 8% With the votes in London at the May local elections likely to dominate coverage a new YouGov poll QMUL has bad news for the Conservatives. The numbers in the local elections voting suggests that the Conservatives could be facing the loss of several key Boroughs to LAB and having tough…

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Quantifying the great cultural divide: those wanting blunt leaders versus those who think you shouldn’t cause offence

Quantifying the great cultural divide: those wanting blunt leaders versus those who think you shouldn’t cause offence

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There’s some new polling just out by YouGov for the latest Prospect Magazine which appears to identify and quantify a divide amongst voters based on a series of questions that I don’t recall being asked in this form before. The one that is most telling is where voters were asked what they preferred in a leader. Overall 45% preferred “politicians who spoke bluntly, without worrying about who they offend,” against 38% who opted for a leader who “spoke carefully” to…

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EU/Europe: The issue that’s cost the last 3 CON PMs their jobs. Will TMay be next?

EU/Europe: The issue that’s cost the last 3 CON PMs their jobs. Will TMay be next?

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Britain's interest in Europe appears to rise (and fall) when the Conservatives are in (and out) of government. @ipsosmori pic.twitter.com/DKlfcFIepI — Alistair McQueen (@HelloMcQueen) February 14, 2018 Polls show that concerns about Europe/EU are linked to whether the Tories are in power or not I like the above chart which makes a strong point that the EU becomes an issue amongst voters when the Tories are in power. The data comes from the Ipsos-MORI Issues Index in which those sampled…

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Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

Case Not Proven: The suggestion that there’s been a LAB>CON shift amongst women

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This has only been picked up by YouGov With the apparent sharpish shifts that we’ve seen in recent days in the polls to the Conservatives there has, inevitably, been a lot of examination of the detailed data. One thing that’s featured is there’s said to have been a noticeable move by women voters from LAB to CON who, in recent times, have mostly leaned more to Labour. This has led to a lot of speculation as to why this has…

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What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

What LAB has not factored in is that TMay’s successor will get a huge polling boost and won’t surely be as bad

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Great news for the Tories from @StephenKB Team Corbyn is complacent about the polls & thinks that next time will be like last time https://t.co/XrhciDtzI7 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 8, 2018 A new CON leader will be a very different proposition for Corbyn The New Statesman’s Stephen Bush has an excellent piece linked to above on how the red team is viewing their little polling hiccup. It is staggeringly complacent with some in the party, apparently, believing that because…

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What makes people proud to be British by party and Brexit choice

What makes people proud to be British by party and Brexit choice

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Why the NHS is so politically sensitive The above YouGov polling sets out clearly how important the NHS and the memory of what Britain did during the war are central to national identity. The party splits are not that large and underpin the approach of all parties with the exception of UKIP whose former leader, Mr Farage, made controversial comments about the NHS a few days ago that were picked up and Tweeted up by Trump. Smart politicians shouldn’t attack…

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What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

What the proposed new boundaries would mean if Britain voted as in latest ICM poll

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The Electoral Calculus projection based on proposed boundaries And the Electoral Calculus projection on current boundaries Over the next couple of years the boundaries review is going to become a major issue. The final proposals are almost there and to show the effect of them I have taken a projection, based on yesterday’s ICM poll, from Martin Baxter’s Electoral Calculus based on the old boundaries and compared them with the new. As can be seen the Conservatives do better with…

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