Populus reports its biggest ever Tory lead The May Populus survey for the Times is out this evening and shows a small increase in the Tory lead compared with what the firm reported a fortnight ago. The figures are with changes on that survey – CON 40%(nc): LAB 29%(-1): LD 19%(nc). So yet another poll is showing the Tories in the 40s with Labour in the 20s. This, I think, is Labour’s worst ever deficit from Populus. The fieldwork took…
One thing that Friday’s London mayoral result showed was that I term “The Golden Rule of British Polling” still applied. For based on the results of the last four general elections and all three London Mayoral races the most accurate poll has always been the one showing Labour (Ken in 2000) in the least favourable position in relation to the Tories. The rule was the key factor that determined my betting in last week’s election and in the end I…
There’s a piece by me on the Guardian’s Comment is Free about the polling and betting on the mayoral election. Mike Smithson
Why did the phone pollsters over-state Labour? Following last nights results the pollster Ipsos-MORI has announced that it will be carrying out a review of its approach and the phone firms generally asking “why empirically, they appear to have tended to over-estimate the Labour share of the vote”. An issue for the firm, of course, was that its final poll was completed a week before the election and a lot can happen in the final few days. That’s certainly true…
But has YouGov got this one right? The former political journalist and one of the founders of YouGov, Peter Kellner, was reported to be quipping to colleagues yesterday: “One thing is certain: by Friday night – either Ken Livingstone or I will be out of a job”. For of the four firms that have surveyed Londoners only his firm, the controversial online pollster YouGov, has consistently reported significant margins for the Tory contender. The other firms – ICM, MRUK and…
Will playing the victim card galvanise the activists? Reproduced above is part of a press release issued this morning by Team Ken in what will probably be the last big move of the campaign. It consists of an attack on the planned YouGov poll that will be published tomorrow as well as the more detailed case of the complaint against the pollster that has been made to the Market Research Society. The objectives appear to be to further smear YouGov,…
Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race. And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above – what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson….
Massive poll leads yet still the nervousness In the past week and a bit we’ve had surveys from all five firms that do national general election polls and all have reported the same trend – a big shift to the Conservatives. The ComRes 14% lead was the last to come and overnight produced figures that would convert into a near Tory landslide at a general election. To recap these are the latest ratings from each of the firms:- ComRes C40:…