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Category: Polls

How ONE ex-Lib Dem became SIX for the SNP

How ONE ex-Lib Dem became SIX for the SNP

Is this why you have to be careful about extrapolation? One of the main innovations in modern polling is the mechanism to ensure a politically balanced sample by asking how people voted last time and then attaching a weighting. Sometimes this can produce very strange results and there have been none stranger than what happened for former Lib Dem voters in the ICM Glasgow East poll at the weekend. Here, for some reason, the pollster only found six people who…

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Should Margaret be worried about the ICM detail?

Should Margaret be worried about the ICM detail?

Could the battle be closer than the headline gap of 14%? I’ve now had chance to examine the detailed data from the weekend’s ICM poll on Glasgow East and there are elements which suggest that it might be better for the SNP than the headline data suggests. Spiral of silence adjustment. The actual shares in the poll before the final adjustment were LAB 46%: SNP 35%: CON 7%: LD 10%. The published figures were L47-SNP33-LD9-C7. The change, like with all…

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Would Labour be 22% behind if Tony had stayed?

Would Labour be 22% behind if Tony had stayed?

Could Blair have impeded the Tory surge? On Friday I got into an argument with the Labour-leaning blogger I have most respect for, Paul Linford, over what would have happened to the party if Tony had not stepped down in June 2007. I felt that Labour would be doing better – Paul disagreed. He argued: “..Sure, there was a grudging recognition among the public that Blair “deserved” his ten years, but they were absolutely sick to the back teeth of…

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Labour’s YouGov recovery reversed

Labour’s YouGov recovery reversed

It’s back to a 22% Labour deficit The second poll of the night, the monthly YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the following with changes on the last published survey by the pollster for the Daily Telegraph a fortnight ago. CON 47%(+1): LAB 25%(-3): LD 18%(+3) The ICM poll showing a Labour lead of 14% in Glasgow East was covered in the previous thread. The YouGov survey will come as something of a blow for Labour because the previous…

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ICM – Labour 14% ahead in Glasgow East

ICM – Labour 14% ahead in Glasgow East

BBC Newsnight Will the poll ease the jitters at Number 10? Telegraph reporting – “The ICM survey for the Sunday Telegraph puts the party on 47 per cent of the vote with its nearest challenger, the Scottish National Party (SNP), on 33 per cent. Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent and the Conservatives on seven per cent.” We need to see the details of the poll, of course, but this margin looks emphatic and suggests that Labour will hold…

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WANTED: more electoral college betting

WANTED: more electoral college betting

Electoral-vote.com Is this the way to capitalise on Obama’s possible big victory? The above map is reproduced from the excellent Electoral-Vote.com which takes all the latest state polls and expresses them graphically on a map of the US. The solid blue states look set to go the Democratic; the solid red ones to the Republicans and the others are leaning in one direction or another or are exactly tied. It’s updated every day and my guess is that we will…

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Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Are these the MORI numbers that will decide it?

Is it “the economy, stupid” The above table is reproduced from the June Ipsos-MORI “Issues Index” survey which has been carried out face-to-face in the same manner for decades. What’s unique about this polling series is that two questions are put totally unprompted, and the pollster has detailed records going back to the 70s. The first asks respondents to name the single most important issue facing the country while the second involves people naming all the issues they think are…

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Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Is Cameron being helped by the polling revolution?

Would Tory leads be as big if older methodologies were still used? One factor that has completely changed the backcloth against which UK political life operates has been the almost total overhaul of the polling industry since the 2001 election to deal with what was the systemic problem of Labour over-statement. It is my contention that if the 2001 line-up of pollsters and polling methods were still in place then the current Labour poll deficits would be on a much…

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