Why so much variation over the Lib Dem number? Whenever I go anywhere, like yesterday during a very enjoyable visit to Westminster, virtually everybody I speak to asks me the same question – “Which pollster do you think is best?”. My answer, as always, is ICM because the record since the mid-90s shows that the firm’s methodology is more likely to pick up the most accurate Lib Dem share. This matters because it has a big impact on the Labour…
Why the default assumption is against Labour With two polls this morning showing very different outcomes and both apparently have taken place at the same it’s perhaps a good moment to bring PB’s “Golden Polling Rule” out again. Just to recall YouGov in the Sunday Times has the Tory lead narrowing to 5% while ComRes in the Indy on Sunday has it increasing to 12%. Eh? For based on the polling record at every single major election since the 1980s…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-1) LABOUR 36% (+3) LIB DEMS 14% (-1) Labour back to General Election level of support The first of tonight’s new national opinion polls is just out and has Labour narrowing even further the gap with the Tories. The five point margin, if repeated at a general election, puts a general election well within hung parliaments territory. My comparisons above are with the last poll from the pollster. No doubt the Sunday Times will follow its normal and…
CONSERVATIVES 41% (-4) LABOUR 35% (+5) LIB DEMS 16% (+1) In what is by far and away the best poll for Labour for more than six months the November Populus poll for the Times has last month’s Tory lead of 15% down to just 6%. This is a very big change and means that the pollster is showing a very different picture from ICM which reported at the weekend. Putting these numbers into the UK Polling Report seat calculator and…
Is John Curtice right about it being a myth? One of the biggest errors that many pundits make is when they compare the numbers from one pollster with another and then conclude that there is a trend. You see this all the time and it is wrong. The six pollsters that regularly carry out voting intention surveys in the UK each have their own bespoke methodology which is unique to them. The only valid comparisons are when you compare like…
Why the split with the media views? This morning the “insiders and experts” who make up the PH100 gave their final verdict on today’s by election in Fife – and their view is that it’s very close but that Labour might just do it. Interestingly PH reports a massive split in the panel between the politicians and the media representatives: “The media panellists are political editors, leading commentators and executives. A solid majority of them are forecasting a win for…
Learn from the costly lessons of 2004 Four years ago a lot of punters lost a lot of money by reading too much into the leaks and then the official exit polls themselves. This is a note that has been issued by John McCain’s head of polling – Bill McInturff – which I am reproducing in full. For the record I have decided not to bet at all today. In 2004 I came close to losing a small fortune when…
Should Westminster heed John Curtice’s words? While we wait for the polling stations to open in America let’s focus for three or four hours on the political situation in the UK and some timely words from Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University in today’s Independent. Under a headline “Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings” Curtice is quoted as saying: “..The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to…