CONSERVATIVES 41% (-2) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 11% (-4) What will this do to the election speculation? A new poll by Ipsos-MORI for the Daily Mirror is out this morning and shows a four point increase in Labour support at the expense of the Lib Dems. The Tories are down two so last month’s MORI margin of 11% is reduced to 5%. The 11% Lib Dem share equals the lowest total that Nick Clegg’s party has had in any…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (nc) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (-3) Tory lead still at just one point The IoS ComRes poll is just out and represents no change between the two main parties but a sharpish slump in the Lib Dem share. Clearly Labour will be delighted with the numbers though I would have expected Brown’s party would have done better given the Lib Dem movement. Normally a Lib Dem decline leads to a Labour boost – but not here….
Will Green-gate affect anybody’s vote? Although there is still the odd story coming out the focus of the Westminster village has moved on from the Damien Green affair and it’s hard to see it bubbling up again. But what of the impact on the voters? No doubt Brown Central was cheered by the above figures from this week’s Populus poll. These showed 45% agreeing that “this is one of those typical Westminster arguments that bear no relation to the lives…
Could this provide a hidden boost to Cameron? On a morning when there’s confirmation that there are now more pensioners in Britain than children I thought it might be useful to look at the potential electoral impact. This provides a useful peg to highlight a fascinating academic paper by Scott Davidson of Loughborough University which was published in 2006 called “The Grey Battleground”. The above table is from the paper. We are probably all aware of the key dynamics but…
Is Populus just following the Cameron exposure rule? The betting exchange, Betfair, have just put up the above new market where the “runners” are the date of the election broken down into six month segments and which party will end up with most seats. This promises to be a fascinating betting arena where I think a lot of the action will take place. Interestingly the latest prices on January-June 2009 election have Labour tighter than the Tories. This is probably…
Could the Speaker have to face the music? If the News of the World report is right that the Crown Prosecution Service is concluding that the case against Green and Galley is “not prosecutable†then that puts a whole different complexion on the affair and today’s debate. For the possibility that there’s not a “crime” takes away one of the main props on which the two who are most exposed – the Speaker and the Home Secretary – had been…
CONSERVATIVES 37% (-6) LABOUR 36% (+4) LIB DEMS 17% (+5) The above figures, now confirmed, show a massive difference compared with the latest ICM and MORI polls which had leads of 15% and 11% respectively. This represents a completely different picture of what is happening between the pollsters. ComRes weight by past vote and apply a strict turn-out filter – factors which tend to help the Tory figures. I assume that with this survey the firm is using its standard…
News is just coming through of a Populus poll for the Times taken in the wake of Monday’s PBR statement. A voting intention question was not asked but the pollster weighted the sample by past votes which makes it politically representative. The findings are a marked contrast with the Telegraph’s YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and Tuesday. It is a real pity that there are no voting numbers. Peter Riddell reports in the Times: “Support for…