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Category: Polls

Will “Clarke’s golden legacy” now become centre stage?

Will “Clarke’s golden legacy” now become centre stage?

Is Ken tasked with “bursting the Brown bubble”? I was very taken by a comment from a ConHome contributor, Jono, that the real reason why Clarke has been brought back is not to handle Mandelson – but to challenge Brown. This was picked up by ChritstinaD. Jono writes “..There is one pillar of the whole, painstakingly constructed edifice of the Brown myth that has always been vulnerable and that is the role of Ken Clarke in creating what was sustainable…

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Would Israel get more backing from the Tories?

Would Israel get more backing from the Tories?

How supporters divide on the Middle East Reproduced above is a snippet from today’s YouGov poll in the Sunday Times which I have clipped because it shows the different approaches that supporters of the three main parties are taking towards the current conflict in the Middle East. For when asked who should get the blame the overall result has 24% of British voters blaming Hamas with 18% saying Israel. The balance of the sample said “equally” or they “don’t know”….

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ComRes adds to Labour’s poll gloom

ComRes adds to Labour’s poll gloom

CONSERVATIVES 41% (+2) LABOUR 32% (-2) LIB DEMS 15% (-1) Is this a third body blow to Brown Central? The second poll of the night, the ComRes poll for tomorrow’s Indy on Sunday, has the Tories back into the low 40s and Labour down a couple of points on where they were in the last survey from the pollster before Christmas. This follows the YouGov poll reported just over an a hour ago on the previous thread that had the…

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Will ComRes provide tables like this?

Will ComRes provide tables like this?

Is this the way to work out how the firm does its weightings? As regular visitors will know Anthony Wells of UKPollingReport and I have been in discussion for some time with the ComRes polling organisation trying to work out how it does its past vote weighting – a measure that all but one of the pollsters adopt in one form or another to ensure that their samples are politically representative. The process is quite simple. Respondees are asked how…

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What’s this going to do to Brown’s confidence?

What’s this going to do to Brown’s confidence?

Could Populus mark a change in the media narrative? There are two critical things about a poll – the actual voting intention numbers themselves and how it is reported in the media. It might be recalled that the final YouGov poll of 2008 showing C42-L35-LD14, numbers that are not that much different from today’s Populus poll in the Times, was barely covered by the paper that had spent a substantial sum on the survey. For at the time the media…

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Tory Populus lead back into double figures

Tory Populus lead back into double figures

CONSERVATIVES 43% (+4) LABOUR 33% (-2) LIB DEMS 15% (-2) Has Gord stopped defying political gravity? The first telephone poll of 2009, from Populus for the Times tomorrow is out and shows a big swing back to the Tories. In recent surveys the phone pollsters have tended to be showing smaller Tory leads than YouGov – which does everything online. The Populus methodology is very similar to ICM – the survey is past vote weighted and a proportion of the…

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What about an 8/1 bet on Gord’s approval ratings?

What about an 8/1 bet on Gord’s approval ratings?

UKPollingReport Could he be back below 20% at Christmas? Just when I feared that with no imminent elections that there would be little for political punters to bet on the bookmakers are getting their thinking hats on and now the Dublin-firm, PaddyPower, has introduced a new market on Gord’s Approval ratings. The market applies to “.. Gordon Browns approval rating (% of those who consider Brown to be doing the job of PM well or fairly well) as Prime Minister…

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Has the NHS ceased to be a political issue?

Has the NHS ceased to be a political issue?

But is this good news for Labour? Almost every month for getting on for three decades MORI has asked its “most important issues facing the country” questions in exactly the same format. Two points are put, both completely unprompted. Firstly they are asked which is the “most important issue” then they are asked to name, without a limit on numbers “other important issues” A striking feature of the latest poll is that the NHS, a long-time political football and an…

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