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Category: Polls

Could YouGov tempt Salmond into taking the gamble?

Could YouGov tempt Salmond into taking the gamble?

What would a Scottish election now do for Gordon? With Scottish politics in turmoil following the rejection by Holyrood of the SNP budget last week there’s a YouGov survey for the Sunday Times of voting intentions north of the border which should give heart to Alex Salmond’s party. The poll suggests the following shares comparisons on a similar poll is September October when Labour was doing badly nationally:- Constituency: SNP 38% (-1): LAB 32% (+1): CON 13% (-1): LD 12%…

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How much of a relief to Gord is this latest YouGov?

How much of a relief to Gord is this latest YouGov?

CONSERVATIVES 43% (-2) LABOUR 32% (nc) LIB DEMS 16% (+2) Was this predicted by the betting markets? The January YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph is out and shows a small reduction in the Tory share and a small increase for the Lib Dem on compared with the last survey from the pollster the Sunday before last. The change is well within the margin of error so we can’t read too much into it. But do they never learn? This…

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What’s Deborah saying about the “do nothing” jibe?

What’s Deborah saying about the “do nothing” jibe?

Are Labour’s focus groups giving it the thumbs up? We are barely fourteen months away from a formal election campaign having to start and one would assume that every single message that the main parties are trying to get over has been tested extensively in focus groups and other polling. What’s at stake is so important that anything that could influence voters in the key marginals has, surely, to be tested and tested to ensure that the parties are getting…

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“Your morning papers Prime Minister….”

“Your morning papers Prime Minister….”

Which of these headlines is the most damaging? What a dreadful set of front pages for Gordon Brown to digest this morning. Not only is there the follow-up to the “cash for laws” allegations but there’s more awful polling news and and in the background the drip by drip news of jobs going up and down the country and in every sector. The release by the Times of the tape recording of the “interview” with one of the “cash for…

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ICM Tory share jumps 6 to 44

ICM Tory share jumps 6 to 44

CONSERVATIVES 44% (+6) LABOUR 32% (-1) LIB DEMS 16% (-3) But the LDs see a drop to 16% The long-awaited Guardian ICM poll for January is just out and has the Tories up six points to 44%. The move is in line with all the other surveys that we have seen in the past three weeks and is further evidence that Brown Bounce II has come to a dead stop. Labour will be pleased that their drop was just one…

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Are these the votes that will decide the election?

Are these the votes that will decide the election?

Will the LAB/LD switchers will stick with Cameron? One of the great features about the pollsters that past vote weight is that you are able to look at the detailed tables and see the cross-party dynamics. Interestingly the broad figures that we get each month from the ComRes, ICM and Populus are in the same ball park and you can get a generalised view of what’s been going on. Reproduced above is an extract from the full tables highlighting how…

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Is an election required for confidence to return?

Is an election required for confidence to return?

Could this be the main argument for 2009? If you look at the betting markets or read the pundits then the strong view is that with the huge polling set-backs of recent weeks Brown is not going to call a general election in the foreseeable future. A 2009 election is off the agenda. He’ll want to, the argument goes, give himself the maximum time for the economic crisis to sort itself out and in any case his October 2007 U-turn,…

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Do Gord and Mandy have a Plan B?

Do Gord and Mandy have a Plan B?

How do they respond to 9 days of polling reverses? While all our eyes have been on Washington Labour is only just assimilating the series of huge poll reverses over the past nine days and the question must be asked – is there anything the party can do now to turn things round again. Just to recall: a week yesterday the Times Populus survey came out putting the Tories on 43% – upping the January deficit from 4 to 10…

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