BBC news programmes search results Is it simply the “Cameron being invisible” effect again? It’s more than three and a half years since I put forward the theory that a key driver of the voting intention poll numbers is the level of coverage that David Cameron has been getting on the TV in the week or so before the survey’s fieldwork takes place. What’s interesting is that this seems to hold good even if the story is a negative one….
Can Pickles entice Lib Dems into voting Tory? This week I’ve been on holiday in Hadrian’s Wall country in Northumberland away from a fast internet connection so I have been unable to catch up on what seems to have been the political broadcasting highlight – the encounter on the Today programme between Tory Chairman, Eric Pickles, and the prominent Lib Dem, Chris Huhne. See this from Harry Phibbs in the Guardian for the details and a description of Chris Huhne’s…
Why do they sound as though it’s still 1997? My apologies for the vulgar headline but it seemed the most apt phrase to describe what the Lib Dems have been doing in recent days in not directing all their fire-power on the weak declining party in British politics. For the big dynamic only months away from the general election is the collapse of Labour – which is the mirror of 1997 when it was the collapse of the Tories. Then…
CON 43 (+2) LAB 26 (+1) LD 19 (nc) And the “others” total drop to just 12% The September ICM poll for the Guardian is just out and shows the Tories up a couple of points with Labour up one – all within the margin of error. So the September polling is following August and we are seeing very little change. Perhaps the significant move is the decreasing share for “other” parties which has been at a high level since…
Is this result down to the question wording? A ComRes poll of Lib Dem councillors for BBC2’s Daily Politics has produced rather predictable results about attitudes of what they would like to see the party doing if there was, indeed, a hung parliament. It found that 31% would like the party to support Labour against 16% who said the Tories. rather than the Tories (16%) in the event of a hung Parliament. The question, however, left a lot to be…
The new series with the emphasis on predicting the outcome One of the frustrations of trying to predict or bet on the general election outcome is that when a poll is published we are reliant for what’s asked and how it is reported on the media organisation that has commissioned it. Quite often significant detail is not included and it can be days before we have it. For us the key numbers are the voting intention ones and we are…
Indy on Sunday Would things look so good with a different leader? John Rentoul in the Indy on Sunday (HatTip Wibbler on previous thread) raises something that I’ve been meaning to look at for some time – the over-reliance that the Tories have on their leader, David Cameron. Just look at the historical polls – both voting intention and approval ratings – and its clear that the party has not been led in recent times by anybody who connects in…
PoliticsHome But might it help incumbents against the Tories? The above, from a new PoliticsHome survey, is a finding that we see in one form or another ahead of every general election – the readiness of supporters of other parties to consider voting for the LDs if they had a serious chance of winning in their constituency. On the positive side for Clegg’s party as they gather in Bournemouth for their annual conference is the response of Labour supporters with…