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Category: Polls

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

Against The Grain – A Labour Recovery?

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A Guest slot by Jack W (PBers in their quiet, contemplative moments will no doubt worry how a PB Titan spends his reflective moments after having polished his betting halo, plotting the next Jacobite Rising and single handedly erasing the balance of payments deficit by stint of fine pie exports alone. You need concern yourself no more. For having been prevailed upon to lift the literary status of PB to Nobel literary standards it is clear that my every spare…

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What do we think of these polling questions?

What do we think of these polling questions?

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Do they give a fair sense of opinion? Regulars on PB will know that I generally detest the findings from non-voting intention questions in polls. So much is dependent on how the question are formulated and the order in which there are put. I am sure that we all recall from that wonderful “Yes Prime Minister” sequence when Sir Humphrey managed to devise two sets of questions on conscription which led to entirely different outcomes. So what are we to…

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Should we focus more on negative voting?

Should we focus more on negative voting?

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Is this what ultimately will be the clincher? As we get closer to elections, it seems, there is one hardy topic that always emerges – that of the impact of negative campaigning and we saw in 1997, 2001 and 2005 how much of the Labour message was primarily about demonising the Tories. But what about negative voting? Do negative messages chime with what some of the electorate wants and what’s the impact? So does it matter in the current context…

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Is Jackie right? Labour could be reduced to 120 seats?

Is Jackie right? Labour could be reduced to 120 seats?

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“….Some Labour people may think I’m sounding too gloomy, but those who have been privy to recent private polling are a lot more than gloomy. This suggests that Labour could return to the Commons with just 120 MPs or thereabouts, taking the party back to 1930s territory…” Jackie Ashley’s Guardian column today – HatTip ConHome Mike Smithson

Is this what happens when the world thinks you are a loser?

Is this what happens when the world thinks you are a loser?

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Would his plan have gone through if his ratings were better? The key impact that opinion polls have is not in predicting the general election but in setting the whole back-cloth for the way current politics is conducted. So is this how we should explain the lack of support for Mr. Brown’s tax plan from other leading countries at yesterday’s meeting of G20 finance minister? If Brown looked set to continue in office for the next five years then his…

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Can this go on with little public support?

Can this go on with little public support?

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Is Brown right to acknowledge that the deployment might fail? We are in for a glut of opinion polls in the coming days on the question of Britain’s continued presence in Afghanistan – the latest being on C4 last night from YouGov which had 73% wanting an immediate or early pull-out. Today, according to the Telegraph, Mr. Brown is to make a key speech on the issue in which he will acknowledge that the British mission which has cost so…

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YouGov now have a 14 point Tory lead

YouGov now have a 14 point Tory lead

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CON 41%(nc) LAB 27%(-1) LD 17%(+1) And 73% want the troops out of Afghanistan A new 1,021 sample YouGov poll for Channel 4 where the fieldwork took place yesterday and today has a slightly increased Tory lead the result of Labour slipping a notch to 27% and the Lib Dems increasing by one point. The total for “others” is at 16% but we do not know what the breakdown of that figure is. Even the detailed data released this evening…

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What’s the next set of polls going to show?

What’s the next set of polls going to show?

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Will the Lisbon compromise mean the Tories are up or down? It’s welcome back to PB’s cartoonist, Marf, with a new drawing this afternoon neatly linking linking the Tory polling position with all the publicity about the plinth in Trafalgar Square. For the next round of surveys, including the latest exclusive poll for PB from Angus Reid Strategies, might set key pointers to the eventual general election outcome. Will the Cameron switch on the Lisbon referendum, as Labour hopes, lead…

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