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Category: Polls

Just how much has the gap closed?

Just how much has the gap closed?

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UKPollingReport Has a “Hung Parliament” now dropped down the agenda? In preparation for my monthly polling slot for tonight’s “The Westminster Hour” on Radio 4 I’ve been having a good look at the numbers. Clearly in the immediate period after the conference season the Tories were doing better than they have been in the past three weeks. The overnight surveys from YouGov and ICM were the first since mid-November to be back in the 40s. By contrast the Labour shares…

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Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

Does Luton matter more than the whole of Scotland?

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Are SNP-Labour battles no more than a minor side-show? Anybody who reads the overnight PB threads might come to the conclusion that the only thing that matters in the coming general election is Scotland. For some reason there are periods in the twilight hours when the site becomes almost a Sassenach-free zone (see note below). Quite often I’m accused of not taking Scotland seriously enough or I’m taken to task for asserting (post Glenrothes and Glasgow North East) that Labour…

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Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

Are LDs viewing the battle differently in the marginals?

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YouGov Is this just a quirk or an election pointer? As PB regulars will know I keep a close eye each month on the forced choice question that is put in the Telegraph’s YouGov poll. It’s been done in the same format for years and the party split might be an indicator of potential tactical voting. For a long period, up to the past couple of years Lib Dem supporters were much more inclined to respond “Labour under Brown” rather…

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Who is winning the climate change argument?

Who is winning the climate change argument?

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Angus Reid Strategies Will the public support tough action? Last week in response to the thread asking for suggestions for possible polling questions several PBers put forward the idea of finding out what the public believed about what for many is the key issue of the age – the extent to which humanity is responsible for climate change. This is central to all policy development because if human behaviour is to blame then maybe something can be done about it….

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Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

Are punters waiting for an ICM poll?

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Why has there been so little movement on the spreads? It’s been an extraordinary couple of weeks with two polls suggesting that we are in hung parliament territory and, perhaps, a change in the media narrative. What seemed a certain Tory majority in mid-November is looking just a touch different. Above is the PB Index which is calculated by taking the average of mid-points on the main seats markets and then extrapolating that into a General Election outcome. The extraordinary…

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Who is going to win the 2010 polling race?

Who is going to win the 2010 polling race?

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Now you can bet on the most accurate final poll? Aside from the party HQs the most tense places to be on election night will be at the six polling firms which carry out monthly surveys of political opinion in Britain. How close were they with their final poll? For they all know only too well that this will be the one set of numbers that will be flung back at them for years to come. And within the industry…

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Will day-time counts mean we have to rely more on this?

Will day-time counts mean we have to rely more on this?

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Is the wise strategy not to bet on exit polls? If there is a huge increase in the number of day-time counts, as many are predicting, then the general election exit poll is going to become even more important. For its projections will be what will dominate perceptions of the election for several hours and maybe into the following morning. Arrangements, I understand, have been made for just one such survey to be mounted which will feed all the main…

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Remember this poll – exactly a year ago today?

Remember this poll – exactly a year ago today?

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CON 37 LAB 36 LD 17 ComRes: Nov 30 2008 UKPollingReport Whatever happened to Brown’s Bank Bailout Bounce? On November 30 2008, precisely a year ago today, ComRes finished their monthly poll for the Independent which had Labour just one point behind – figures which suggested that Mr. Brown was within a whisker of an overall Labour majority. This followed an extraordinary couple of months after his widely acknowledged role in the bank bailout – not just for the UK…

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