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Category: Polls

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

(UPDATED) Could Welsh Labour be about to experience a near wipe-out similar to that which Scottish Labour saw at GE2015?

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A new Welsh Political Barometer poll by @YouGov will be published tomorrow by @ITVWales The results go well beyond ‘gosh’ territory, or even ‘blimey’: by some way the most dramatic poll I have ever analysed. And in some respects a genuinely historic poll for Welsh politics. — Roger Awan-Scully (@roger_scully) July 28, 2019 It is not often that all eyes are on Welsh politics but yesterday’s Tweet from the respected Professor Roger Scully of Cardiff University has really set things…

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Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

Why many pollsters overstated LAB so much at the May Euros and what could be happening with current VI polls

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  GE2017 LAB voters forgetting what they did could be causing distortion After the 1992 polling debacle when John Major’s Tories won an overall majority even though all but one of the pollsters had LAB ahead a big effort was launched by ICM to find out what had gone wrong and we’ve all heard about “shy Tories” less willing to take part in polls. The firm’s Nick Sparrow in conjunction with Prof John Curtice came up with what is known…

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Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

Two new polls this afternoon with very different shares for LAB and the Greens

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If LAB had been doing better at recent elections then you might say that Survation has got this right. But Corbyn’s party had a miserable set of locals in May followed up by dreadful Euro elections three weeks later when they slipped down to just 13.6% and could not even maintain position as top party in London. They did, of course, hold Peterborough in June but with a share down 17% on GE2017. At the Euro election YouGov got the…

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If Boris wins then last month’s ComRes poll suggests a huge CON recovery is in prospect

If Boris wins then last month’s ComRes poll suggests a huge CON recovery is in prospect

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Telegraph June 11 2019 The possiblity of a 140 majority would surely tempt the new PM There is little doubt that the Telegraph’s ComRes poll that appeared on June 11th played a major part in the Conservative leadership contest. It came out at a crucial time just as the MP rounds of voting were due to start. As the headline above showed it pointed to a Johnson led Conservative Party winning a majority of 140 seats over LAB in a…

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The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

The best test of a pollster is not how they’re currently doing against other firms but what happened last time they were tested

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I am afraid that I have to disagree with David Herdson on his latest Saturday thread about YouGov understating Labour. Firstly you cannot judge pollsters’ based on their current surveys when less than 5 weeks ago they were tested against a real election involving real voters. In the two charts above I compare LAB and LD vote shares for the May Euros in their final published polls.  Just two of them can claim to have come out of the election…

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The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

The YouGov discrepancy: just how badly is LAB doing?

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Wikipedia A clear lead or struggling to be neck-and-neck? Three parties have dominated the coverage of opinion polling and major elections over the last three months. On one side, the Tories have clearly suffered a catastrophic loss, shedding more than half the support they had at the start of the year, losing more than 1300 councillors and then nearly all their MEPs in May. Against which, the Brexit Party has exploded out of nowhere to win the EP elections and…

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The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

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In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2019 Opinium has BXP ahead with the LDs in 4th. In its final Euros poll Opinium had the highest rating of any firm for BXP – 38% against the 31% that they actually got. It had the LDs on 15% 5 below the…

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How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

How the final polls did against the actual results – party by party

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As can be seen from the charts above the biggest problem the pollsters had was with LAB which had a huge range in the final polls. Partly, I suspect, this was that Labour supporters had not finalised their decision to vote tactically when they were being questioned. It is well know that a significant proportion of voters really don’t make their minds up until the last moment. This is why Ipsos MORI generally try to ensure that its final poll…

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