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A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

A mediocre PMQ performance and the Ashcroft poll make it a tricky day for EdM

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EdM’s poorest PMQs for some time. Didn’t seem to engage. Cameron meanwhile has a goodperformance. Dave 8/10 EdM 5/10 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 21, 2012 My Tweet on PMQs gives my verdict – Cameron was much better and in greater control today while for Ed Miliband it was a PMQs to forget. Why he chose the NHS, something that is hardly a current issue, for a his round of questions really looked odd. It didn’t work. Also today…

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ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

ICM – the pollster PBers voted Britain’s most accurate – has UKIP moving to a record 7 percent

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The party breakdown & changes in this month’s ICM phone poll – which has UKIP at a record high for the firm. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 LAB is leading by 47% to 30% amongst women in tonight’s ICM poll. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 The CON share of 32% from ICM is the second lowest from the firm since David Cameron became leader in Dec 2005 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 19, 2012 Cameron’s…

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The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

The ComRes polling that totally undermines the notion that UKIP voters are simply “Tories on holiday”

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If ComRes is right the Tories are seriously over-estimating the potential for UKIP switching bit.ly/RKTZ5L twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 18, 2012 Just 18% of current UKIP voters say they’d “consider” the Tories From the three online polls that have come out overnight there is one sets of findings that stand out – the responses to the ComRes “potential to switch” question. Poll participants were asked after giving their party choice what other parties they could see themselves “seriously…

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Trust in BBC journalists declines sharply – but still ahead of every other sector of the media

Trust in BBC journalists declines sharply – but still ahead of every other sector of the media

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Great table from YouGov on their “Trust Tracker”.Though there’s been a big decline BBC journos still most trusted twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 The polling impact of recent traumatic events Some interesting data published by YouGov which it calls its “TrustTracker”. Inevitably given the current series of issues the BBC was going to take a hit but what is also interesting is how most of the other media has also shown a decline. I love getting data…

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YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

YouGov suggests that turnout in the PCC elections is going to be higher than expected. Time to bet?

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If YouGov’s finding on likely turnout in Thursday’s PCC election is correct then taking the 5/6 at 20%+ is a good bet twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 13, 2012 Should we be a bit cautious about the findings? Ladbrokes have adjusted their PCC elections turnout bet following the YouGov poll at the weekend that had 28% in the areas where elections will be held saying they were 10/10 certain to vote. On the face of it this makes the…

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According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

According to Nate Silver’s accuracy table all but three pollsters showed a bias to the Republicans

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Nate Silver: nyti.ms/Z6kbM7 The Which Polls Fared Best (and Worst) in the 2012 Presidential Race twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 11, 2012 Which did best – which did worst? Nate Silver of the New York Times has produced the above polling accuracy table. He’s based it on surveys in the final three weeks rather than just the closing poll. Nate’s reasoning is that there’s a tendency, which we see in the UK as well, for pollsters to herd round…

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Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

Romney’s big hope is that Tues will see a polling disaster on the scale experienced in Britain at the 1992 election

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Remember when the pollsters made a hash of the 1992 election. Could that be happening in the US? twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 1, 2012 The night when John Major defied all the predictions As can be seen from the screen-shot above the exit poll at the 1992 UK general election was very much out – as were, with one notable exception, every single campaign poll. Everything pointed in April 1992 to John Major losing and the then 13…

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