Browsed by
Category: Polls

Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

Declining UKIP support in June sees the CON position improve In the Electoral Calculus monthly GE2015 prediction

Comments 0 Comment

LAB majority prediction from Electoral Calculus down from 92 to 74 following 4% average decline in UKIP poll share pic.twitter.com/3UwLUREYmb — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 1, 2013 Martin Baxter’s “poll of polls” has UKIP down 4 Each month the Cambridge turned city mathematician who has been running Electoral Calculus since the mid 1990s, Martin Baxter, publishes his latest general election projection based on his polling average applied to his Commons seat prediction model. The latest is in the table above. He…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft is on the look out for interesting ideas for polls

Lord Ashcroft is on the look out for interesting ideas for polls

Comments 0 Comment

This is one I suggested this morning @LordAshcroft Polling suggestion CON-LAB marginals where the LDs had 15%+ share at GE2010 Seats like this pic.twitter.com/p8iotttWAg — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 30, 2013 In a Tweet before the weekend the biggest commissioner of private polling in the UK, Lord Ashcroft, suggested that he was looking out for interesting ideas for political polls. One I put forward is in the Tweet reproduced above – CON-LAB battlegrounds where the LDs performed well in 2010. Given that…

Read More Read More

Kellner says an overall LAB majority looks less likely after YouGov reports its lowest lead of the year

Kellner says an overall LAB majority looks less likely after YouGov reports its lowest lead of the year

Comments 0 Comment

Why a 5% LAB lead might not be enough Today’s YouGov poll for the Sunday Times has the LAB lead down to just 5% it’s lowest point since November 2012. This has set off the talk once again that an overall majority for Ed Miliband in 2015 might be not as much in the bag as it appeared. For all though the shares in the poll should, according to the seat calculators, produce a comfortable majority there are reasons which…

Read More Read More

Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

Leadership ratings: a good guide but not a magic measure

Comments 0 Comment

And in any case, it’s too close to call right now It’s sometimes said that oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them but that’s only true to a degree.  A popular and effective government will always win re-election because in such circumstances, the swing voters in the electorate will have little reason to listen to the opposition, little to gain and potentially much to lose by voting the government out no matter how good the opposition, and in all probability…

Read More Read More

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

Lord Ashcroft is releasing his Boris polling in bits: Phase one on which politicians those sampled recognised

Comments 0 Comment

The 1st phase of @LordAshcroft Boris polling on recognition level of leading politicians. Sample shown pics See pic.twitter.com/HRHEwwibX8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 25, 2013 But does being recognised = electoral success? Michael Ashcroft has decided to tease us with tit-bits with the release of his hyped Boris polling. Instead of issuing it all at once he’s doing it in bits – probably with the aim of building up his Twitter following and mailing list. This morning we get the “who…

Read More Read More

New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6

New ComRes phone poll sees UKIP dropping 3 and LAB extending lead to 6

Comments 0 Comment

The changes in the chart are with the ComRes phone poll last month. I treat ComRes phone polls as a separate series from ComRes online. A majority of people aged 65 and over believe that pensioners should not be immune from public spending cuts, according to the poll. They are more likely than any other age group to think that pensioners should not enjoy special protection from the cuts. Amid an intense political debate over whether pensioners’ benefits such as…

Read More Read More

Are the voters ready to countenance the idea of PM Boris? We might know more this week

Are the voters ready to countenance the idea of PM Boris? We might know more this week

Comments 0 Comment

@LordAshcroft Do you need a cover photo for your Boris poll? pic.twitter.com/0UscaExd25 — Nick Boles (@GeneralBoles) June 23, 2013 Is the Mayor the man who polls better than he performs? In the last year there have been several polls from different pollsters using different methodologies that have sought to test the impact on voting intentions if Boris rather than Dave was CON leader. The outcomes have generally been the same that the blue team would get a boost with Boris…

Read More Read More

Now the best batch of polling news for the Tories for months

Now the best batch of polling news for the Tories for months

Comments 0 Comment

These numbers should calm the Cameron doubters Today's YouGov for Sun had LAB lead down to just 6% CON 32 LAB 38 LD 10 UKIP 13 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 Today's YouGov sees Dave increase his "Best PM" lead over EdM from 7% to 15% Dave 35%+5 EdM 20%-3 Clegg 5%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 YouGov finds that more people now want a majority CON government to a majority LAB one pic.twitter.com/6m9EJgk2aJ — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 20, 2013 Main…

Read More Read More