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Category: Polls

For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

For CON to have any chance the LAB share needs to erode. It’s looking pretty solid.

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Remember Bob Worcester’s advice – look at the shares not the lead The veteran pollster who founded the MORI company all those years ago, Bob Worcester, used to contact me in the early days of PB to give me a gentle admonishment whenever he thought I focused too much on polling leads. The important thing, he would always say, was to look at the respective party poll shares. This is what I am doing today with two charts showing the…

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Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

Populus back to “normal” following Friday’s shock LAB 11pc lead

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When I questioned Populus boss, Rick Nye, about his Friday poll he said we’d need to wait until Monday see if it was an outlier or not. Well today’s poll is just out and we’ve got our answer. The numbers are very much back in line with all the other Populus online polls since the series was started last month. As Nate Silver has observed the test of an honest pollster is whether they get the occasional outlier which should…

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While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

While Labour continues to have problems with leader ratings Dave should be worried about how his party is perceived

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The above netted off figures are based on these more detailed numbers. There were, as it turned out only two polls overnight, and the findings that I am highlighting are the party and leader favourability figures from Survation for the Mail on Sunday. These show, I’d suggest, the biggest challenges facing both the blue and red teams just 21 months before GE2015. Labour’s weak link is its leader while the big drag on Cameron is the Conservative party itself. These…

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LAB lead moves from 5pc to 11pc with Populus online

LAB lead moves from 5pc to 11pc with Populus online

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The “ever so stable poll” ain’t any longer Above in the chart are the figures for today’s Populus online poll which show a big change on Monday’s survey. As can be seen the Tories are down 5 and UKIP up 4. I asked the firm whether there have been any weighting or other methodological changes which might explain such a big shift in such a short period of time. The response I got from Rick Nye is below:- “No. But…

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Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

Survation poll finds strong support for keeping East Coast main line in public sector

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By 58% to 21% those sampled in new Survation poll want the East Coast main line to stay in public ownership pic.twitter.com/aDF8XhuJuw — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 1, 2013 The poll gave two options is this form:- The East Coast Main Line should remain in public ownership, as it is now better run than it was when privatised and is returning profits to the Treasury The East Coast Main Line should now go back to being privatised like other rail…

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The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

The immigration poster that symbolises the Dave’s dilemma. Moves to win back UKIP switchers risk alienating 2010 LDs

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The immigration poster at the heart of the CON-LD row. The Tories want it – the LDs are opposed pic.twitter.com/WRIvgDEdWi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) July 30, 2013 How the two key swing groups reacted to the campaign As we keep on saying two big things have happened to voters since GE2010: The switch to Labour by 2010 LD voters following their party’s coalition deal with the Tories and the shrinkage of the CON vote as a result of the UKIP…

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This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

This month’s ComRes phone poll for the Indy has the Tories closing the gap to just 3%

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The Tories surge as the UKIP decline continues The latest ComRes phone poll for the Independent is out and is in line with the trends we’ve been seeing over the past weeks: the Ukip decline and the Tory recovery. The figures and changes on last month are in the chart above. A 4% increase is outside the margin of error which suggests that real movement had taken place. The poll is not that far off the 36-36 ICM survey a…

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