Overall LAB has had pretty steady start to 2014 This morning we’ve got the first Populus online survey of the year which has LAB back on 40% with CON down 2% to 33%. All just about within the margin of error. This follows the first week of YouGov daily polls which has had the Tories solidly on 32% with LAB ranging from 37% to 40%. The LDs have been on 9/10% while UKIP has been in the 12-14% range. All…
One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…
Observer front page lead http://t.co/EQ72wB7tlf — PolPics (@PolPics) January 5, 2014 Get ready for more attacks on him like the latest by Tristram Hunt Both Labour and Lib Dem strategists have told me in recent months that they now regard the education secretary, Michael Gove, as the Conservative party’s biggest electoral liability. The newly published YouGov polling showing Labour with a 41% lead amongst this voter group underlines the view that there’s a big benefit to be had in attacking…
The latest Lord Ashcroft mega poll has just been published as part of a study on how the Tories could win at GE2015. The poll was carried out online amongst a sample of 8,053 more than a month ago. Unlike the regular YouGov and Populus online polls Lord Ashcroft doesn’t use party ID weighting which tends to depress the UKIP voting numbers. To me it is striking that the 16% UKIP share is very close to tonight’s 17% share from…
They are more enthusiastic about EdM than existing LAB voters On one of the threads yesterday there were a number of questions asking what is known about the group of voters who could put a CON majority beyond reach – 2010 LD voters who now say they will go Labour. The problem is that almost all the polling data we have doesn’t show this segment separately – so while it is possible to extrapolate we cannot get reliable numbers. The…
How many times will ICM, last to report CON ahead, have one in 2014? On how many occasions during 2014 will the Guardian’s monthly ICM phone poll report a CON lead 11-12 polls 9-10 polls 7-8 polls 5-6 polls 3-4 polls 1-2 polls NONE This from March 2012 was last to have CON ahead Mike Smithson Blogging from OUTSIDE the Westminster bubble since 2004 Follow @MSmithsonPB
It is all about how the questions are put There’s a new Ipsos-MORI poll reported in the Observer that suggests that more than two thirds would be ready to welcome migrants from Bulgaria and Romania provided that they “learn English, get a job, pay taxes and become part of their local community.” The poll itself has been funded by the thinktank British Future and comes only three days before the changes relating to the two countries come into effect. Clearly…
UKIP, odds on favourites to win trail LAB by 7% On May 22nd next year the whole of the UK will be voting in the elections for the European Parliament yet there’s been very little media coverage and almost no polling. Whilst we have eight or nine Westminster VI polls a week you had until tonight to go back until early October to find the last EP2014 survey. This is surprising because EP2014 represents a massive opportunity for the new…