Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fuelled by the leader ratings remain
But YouGov’s 8% for the LDs signals problems over Rennard Very irritatingly Opinium don’t publish their full dataset until after the weekend so we have yet to see the firm’s fortnightly leader approval ratings and a Euro election poll that they carried out. Almost all the other firms, bar ICM, now have near instantaneous publication of the detailed data as soon as headline numbers are released. Opinium should get their act together. They are the only firm to carry out…
MEMO to CON MPs who think that an EU referendum is the magic bullet that’ll help them save seats: It isn’t
Check this YouGov polling – Europe has little salience Quite simply there are too few potential converts Judging by the intensity of many backbench CON MPs over the EU referendum issue you’d have thought that they firmly believe if only they could get this sorted it would be the magic bullet that would ensure their re-election at GE2015. The blunt fact is that it isn’t. For the vast bulk of voters Europe, even those saying UKIP as the chart shows,…
The LDs and LAB the gainers in today’s FOUR new voting intention polls
It feels like general election time! I can’t remember a day since the 2010 general election when we’ve had four new Westminster voting intention polls. They are featured in the interactive chart above. Most important is the monthly Ipsos-MORI phone poll which only in October had the Tories and LAB level pegging on 35%. Well it’s very different today with the red team having a 9% lead and the LDs seeing their share jump 4. The big driver of the…
Why those wanting an EU referendum shouldn’t pin their hopes on Ed Miliband
@LordAshcroft There's no benefit to LAB in helping close down the issue of Europe which has been so divisive for the Tories. No referendum. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 @MSmithsonPB ..wouldn't bet on that… — Lord Ashcroft (@LordAshcroft) January 16, 2014 Last night I got into a little Twitter discussion with Lord Ashcroft over Labour and an EU referendum. He was articulating what is a widespread Tory view that EdM will be forced ahead of the election to…
The European Parliament elections: The nonsense voting system that the coalition should have scrapped
EU elections ballot paper http://t.co/RLIyaIkww4 — PolPics (@PolPics) January 16, 2014 YouGov/Sun EP2014 poll has LAB 32% UKIP 26% CON 23% LD 9% So CON down to 3rd & LDs in danger of losing all MEPs — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 16, 2014 The weird system made for the party machines Today we have, see above, the first YouGov poll for the big UK election this year that takes place on May 22nd when 73 UK MEPs will be elected to the European Parliament….
The polling differential in the marginals that would mean that we should be adding 5 to the LAB lead
Are the blues really doing so much worse in the battlegrounds? Back in September Lord Ashcrooft published his 12,083 sample phone polls showing that LAB was doing substantiality better in the key battlegrounds than in the country as a whole. The idea that something different was happening in the marginals was given greater credence last month when Survation, in its series of constituency polls for UKIP donor, Alan Bown, also had Labour doing better. The broad scale of the swing…
Introducing the PB weekly average of YouGov daily polls
The general election is sixteen months away and the polls are going to be increasingly important. The biggest in terms of volume of output is, of course, YouGov which carries out five surveys each week – four for the Sun and one for the Sunday Times. Sometimes these get reported at other times they don’t. I thought it quite a good idea to continue highlighting interesting single polls but also to record a weekly average so we’ll be a able…