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If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

If UKIP is to win Westminster seats it needs much more direct voter contact than in Wythenshawe

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How the parties are campaigning from the @LordAshcroft Wythenshawe poll pic.twitter.com/oFC8TtPY3W — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 7, 2014 Getting data is absolutely essential Once again Lord Ashcroft has done what the mainstream media seems to have all but abandoned – commissioned an expensive phone poll on an upcoming political event and come up with data that adds to our understanding of the current political scene. No one is particularly surprised by the voting numbers in his Wythenshawe poll – LAB…

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How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

How votes have been churning between the parties since 2010

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From the latest Ashcroft mega-poll We don’t often view polling data in this way partly because the sample sizes in the regular surveys are not really large enough to draw conclusions from sub-samples. Lord Ashcroft gets round this by using very large samples with the result that for poll watchers like me his detailed data can provide good insights and pointers. Clearly the top two, UKIP and LAB, have seen the most new support coming to them and are probably…

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An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

An emerging trend? LAB voters are now more likely to say they are certain to vote

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The trend over the past few years New analysis from @IpsosMORI shows CON voters now less certain to vote than LAB ones. http://t.co/WbBIclp73V Chart pic.twitter.com/wcbQPw6nTi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014 How higher certainty levels boosted LAB in this poll Ipsos-MORI Jan 2014 Political Monitor pic.twitter.com/PYmcnHH54B — PolPics (@PolPics) February 5, 2014 There’s an interesting article by Ipsos-MORI’s Roger Mortimer on the way that LAB voters are increaingly saying that they are more certain to vote than CON ones. This…

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Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

Another poll finds the #IndyRef gap closing in Scotland but whoever the client was has so far sat on it

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Mystery YouGov #indyref poll finds gap closing as well but so far hasn't been published http://t.co/In2xHlmZ7s pic.twitter.com/aNmDN7vpse — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2014   PB reveals the mystery YouGov referendum survey The big Scottish #IndyRef story over the past week had been the closing of the gap between those wanting independence and those opposed. First was the ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday which was followed by TNS BMRB. Now another poll has emerged which also shows the same…

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All the weekend polls: Round up

All the weekend polls: Round up

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Westminster voting intentions – LAB pretty solid Killer number for CON in today's YouGov is that 37% 2010 LD voters now say LAB That has to come down drastically for CON to have a chance — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2014 TNS reports YES moving forward for Scottish IndyRef

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

Let this week be a lesson for us all: Don’t get too excited about a single survey

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YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead jumps to 10 points: CON 32, LAB 42, LD 8, UKIP 12 — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 30, 2014 That was almost the polling week that was We’ve now got to Friday in what has been a dramatic polling week and the chart above shows what’s happened to the five times a week YouGov “daily polls”. After three surveys which really looked as though Labour’s lead had narrowed we’ve now got Miliband’s party in…

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Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

Based on YouGov’s first three polls this week the gap is getting narrower

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The latest YouGov/Sun daily poll, published last night, has LAB 38/CON 35/LD 10/UKIP 11 – so a continuation of what we’ve been seeing all week. For my chart above I’ve calculated a provisional weekly average based on the first 3 polls and as is clear there is a narrowing. The question is whether this is down to normal margin or error, which it could well be, or are we seeing real change? We should get another YouGov tonight and, of…

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Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

Why Scottish LAB voters hold the key to their country’s future

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On Sunday we reported on the ICM poll in Scotland on September’s IndyRef which had the gap narrowing sharply. On one measure those who wanted independence were just 6% behind. Now I’ve had a chance to look at the detail and the above findings stand out – whether voters mght change their mind broken down by which party they supported in the 2011 Holyrood elections. On the voting question LAB voters from 2011 split 28% YES to 72%. LDs were…

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