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Being an Etonian is seen much worse than having taken hard drugs. YouGov’s “Characteristics unsuitable in leading politicians”

Being an Etonian is seen much worse than having taken hard drugs. YouGov’s “Characteristics unsuitable in leading politicians”

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The UKIP responses are striking The above polling (full details here) came out yesterday when I was attending a family occasion and have only just got round to looking at the detail. I’ve put it into an interactive chart and it’s fascinating seeing how supporters of the four main parties take very different views on particular characteristics. The Etonian point is just one of many aspects. The “never had a real job” doesn’t surprise me and it is noticeable how…

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The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

The polling lesson of the week: Don’t get too excited about single YouGov daily poll movements

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Exactly 14 months to go & LAB leads jumps to 9..BUT.. LAB lead in YouGov Sun poll jumps 6 to 9% CON 31% LAB 40% LD 9% UKIP 13% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 7, 2014 We’ve got to remember that polls can be subject to a lot of sample variation with, quite often, particular demograpihic segments having to be sharply scaled up or down. If the former then the margin of error for that section increases. This is one of the reasons why…

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New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

New PB analysis finds that LAB and UKIP have far more 2010 non-voters amongst current support than either the Tories or Lib Dems

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This could have an impact on May 7th 2015 The big Populus/FT online aggregate data for February with an overall sample of 14,203, provides a mine of information presented in a form that makes possible a number of detailed analysis areas which you cannot do with conventional polling data. One I’ve been looking at overnight is the proportion of non-voters from last time amongst the current support bases. I went into this thinking that UKIP would have the most. In…

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The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

The Conservative nightmare: We could be seeing a voteless recovery

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Tonight’s ComRes phone poll for the indy sees LAB lead up by 7% The one hope that has been consistent amongst both coalition partners during the past three and a half difficult years has been the political benefits that would accrue once the recovery was established and the electorate could see that it had all been worthwhile. Well over the past few months the economic news has been generally good. Growth is up while unemployment is down. Things start to…

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The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

The pieces of the electoral pie that have got to get a lot smaller if Cameron is to have any chance of staying at Number 10

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2010 LD to LAB switching 2010 CON to UKIP switching Thanks to the new Populus monthly polling aggregate with a sample in February of 14,203 and the weekly averaging of the numbers in the five times a week YouGov polling we can get broader picture of the big dynamics in voting intentions since the 2010 general election. The pie charts above say it all. At the last general election the Lib Dem secured 24% of the overall GB vote while…

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LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

LAB moves to highest share of the year in tonight’s YouGov poll

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LAB lead moves to 9% in tonight's YouGov poll CON 32 LAB 41 LD 8 UKIP 12 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Tonight's 41% LAB share from YouGov is the highest of the year — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 The Scottish polling headlines Ipsos-MORI trend chart showing gap getting larger in #IndyRef polling pic.twitter.com/boOJ2xzTVz — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 Scottish #IndyRef YES still struggling to win over women. See chart from Ipsos-MORI pic.twitter.com/G8oCJYx2AA — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB)…

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14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

14 months to go and still no sign of a movement that could stop Ed Miliband becoming PM

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Good chart from Electoral Calculus http://t.co/feJQJBE8NT showing polling trends since GE2010 pic.twitter.com/dDS86kDbSi — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) March 3, 2014 At the weekend Martin Baxter who’s been running Electoral Calculus for nearly 20 years produced his latest polling average and projections for the general election. The good news for the Tories is that there was slight edge back to them. Instead of a LAB majority of 66 being projected this slipped back to 58. The bad news that they are still…

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Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

Suddenly polling aggregates become all the rage: Introducing the new monthly Populus-FT polling

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Where PB goes others follow At the start of the year I introduced the weekly PB YouGov polling average so we could better track the way opinion was moving and isolate key segments for analysis. Well the idea has caught on and today we see the launch of the Populus online monthly polling for the FT based on an overall sample of 14,000. The February Populus/FT numbers are in the interactive chart above as is the latest PB YouGov weekly…

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