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Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

Two new polls for the EP2014 elections have Ukip leads of 9% and 11%

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43% of 2010 CON voters say they’ll vote purple on May 22 Away from from Newark there’ve been two new Euro polls this morning both showing very similar figures. Check the interactive chart – LAB & CON shares both the same while ComRes makes it 38% for Ukip and TNS-BMRB makes it 36% These are massive moves which, if sustained, point to a dramatic outcome in the elections on May 22nd. For me the stunning figure is that both polls…

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YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

YouGov finds that a remarkable 45% of the over 60s say they’ll be voting Ukip in the Euros

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Probably the most remarkable feature from the latest YouGov Euros poll is the split amongst the 60+ age group – featured in the chart above. As can be seen some 45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP. We’ve always known that the purples have a greater appeal as you move up the age scale but this split took me by surprise. It looks as though there is something special about the Euros. For only 20% of this…

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The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for internet polling against traditional phone surveys

The May 22nd Euro Elections look set to be a good test for internet polling against traditional phone surveys

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Which firm/form of polling will get its closest? Of the 2014 polls the only ones not to be carried out online are the two from ICM which has been showing a very different picture – notably UKIP has been third in each case. TNS-BMRB operates a sort of hybrid system – interviewers hand over a computer for the interviewee to fill in. There have long been complaints from purple backers about the way the phone polls seem to mark them…

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The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

The betting markets have yet to move on Farage’s claim that UKIP will hold balance of power at GE2015

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William Hills http://t.co/xwjAlkObCQ make it 4/7 UKIP won't win a seat at GE2015 Indy story http://t.co/si9chPFuF2 pic.twitter.com/IEfn7UNfeW — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 24, 2014 Farage’s achilles heel: UKIP’s the least liked & most disliked party Mike Smithson Ranked in top 33 most influential over 50s on Twitter Follow @MSmithsonPB

For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead

For the first time ever in a Westminster seat a poll finds UKIP ahead

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If Survation for the MoS is right the LDs set to lose Eastleigh You can get UKIP at 4/1 from Ladbrokes in Eastleigh which seems like a good bet. I’ve long said the Eastleigh was UKIP’s best hope because of its performance in the February 2013 by-election. This poll did not mention the names of candidates – just the parties. We do not know yet whether Diane James will be standing again for the purples. She is a great asset….

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UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elections poll for the Sunday Telegraph

UKIP in second place 3 percent behind LAB in ICM Euro Elections poll for the Sunday Telegraph

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The first of tonight’s very interesting crop of polls is out and, as can be seen, UKIP is only 3% behind LAB in the ICM online Euro elections poll. This is a very different picture from the ICM phone poll reported earlier in the week which had UKIP in third place. For whatever reason the purples are doing better when the fieldwork is carried out online. There are several more very newsworthy polls expected in the next few hours. Mike…

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