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As a general rule we over-estimate the impact of media stories on voting intentions
If #Eastleigh goes the way of the Ashcroft poll we’ll have to revise our view of the power of the press twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The influence is on the decline On the face of the Lib Dem should be taking a real beating in the polls at the moment. Since the Rennard story broke on Thursday evening there has been increasing coverage and the party’s response has been less than optimal. But what’s happened in…
How to predict the YouGov daily poll BEFORE you go to bed
If it’s good for the blues you’ll get this before midnight YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour’s lead just six points – CON 35%, LAB 41%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9%. Can Cameron sustain the EU bounce? — Sun Politics (@Sun_Politics) January 28, 2013 If it’s not then you’ll have to wait till 6am for this Update: Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 29th Jan – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 11%, UKIP 8%; APP -31 y-g.co/YfuYSG — YouGov (@YouGov)…
The Andrew Mitchell affair – this Channel 4 report is a must watch
No 10 “allegations a serving police officer posed as member of public and fabricated evidence against a Cab Min are exceptionally serious”. — Patrick Wintour (@patrickwintour) December 18, 2012 There was, of course, a lively betting market during the few weeks before Mitchell stepped down. Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Politicians should be less frightened of the national newspapers given that far fewer people are buying them
The press ain’t wot it used to be. Look at these declining circulation numbers. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n… twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 EdM re-takes the lead in YouGov’s leader ratings Cameron slips back in YouGov’s leadership ratings and EdM is back ahead twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 Mike Smithson For the latest polling and political betting news Follow @MSmithsonPB
Dave could be facing a big challenge winning support for press control without legislation
The first post Leveson report poll suggests that Cameron might be on the wrong side of public opinion. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 2, 2012 First Leveson polling reaction: By 50-29%, people tell YouGov that Cameron was wrong to oppose Leveson’s proposals for new legislation — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 50-26%, those sampled by YouGov think Clegg was right to back Leveson’s proposal. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 1, 2012 By 46-32%, people tell YouGov that…
How the same ComRes sample wanted both statutory media regulation AND a press not restricted by legally binding rules
Confused state of public opinon ahead of Leveson? Apparently contradictory findings from ComRes bit.ly/Y7DzLa twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) November 29, 2012 Whatever side you are on there’s something for you in this poll A ComRes online poll for ITV News overnight neatly sums up the dilemma over press regulation. Look at the chart above. When asked “In light of the Leveson Inquiry the Government should introduce statutory regulation of the media” those in the ComRes sample agreed by 51%…