politicalbetting.com

New pollster MRUK has Ken just 1% ahead With just five days to go before the London elections the new pollster, MRUK, has produced for the Sunday Times what we assume is its final survey and it shows the following first preference split with changes on last week – JOHNSON 43%(-1): LIVINGSTONE 44%(-1): PADDICK 9%(nc). After second preferences MRUK make it 51% to 49% for Ken. So the Ken first preference figure is dramatically up on the 36.9% that he…

Read More Read More

…and a 60% turnout is projected Due to a series of cock-ups details of the latest trade union-funded poll by Ipsos-MORI have been taken off the pollster’s website but they were on long enough to pick up some key information. Ken’s first preference share projection was put at 41% which is way ahead of the 36.9% he got four years ago and the 39% that he achieved when he first swept into power in 2000. So for every SEVEN Londoners…

Read More Read More

Punters still reluctant to bet on a Cameron majority Ever since Ken Livingstone sought to discredit the YouGov polling organisation after the firm’s February poll put him behind for the first time the result of next Thursday election is going to be about more than who runs London. It has become, also, about the confidence we can have in surveys from the online pollster and the conventional firms. This has become more the case this morning as the political world…

Read More Read More

Will the “golden rule” apply again next week? So far four polling firms have produced surveys on the 2008 London Mayoral race and it looks as though each will be doing at least one further survey for publication in the next week. What’s great about this contest is that it’s about aggregate vote totals across London and we’ll be able to compare directly the performance of each polling firm with the actual result. In this election there is no hiding…

Read More Read More

Which is the best guide to the likely outcome? Just twelve days to go before more than five million Londoners get the chance to vote in an election that is being widely regarded as a proxy for the general election. Because it is in the capital and because of the massive national media coverage the winner of Britain’s single election will have an enormous impact on the overall political environment. The stakes are enormous: a Conservative win with Boris Johnson…

Read More Read More