Could the Tories have fired their big guns too early? In one sense today is a great victory for the opposition parties. Normally this annual set-piece event provides the peg for acres and acres of coverage on what the government is doing with the Tories and the Lib Dems struggling to get a look in. Well with the Green arrest likely to be dominating the headlines tonight that should be a minus point to Brown Central. But don’t underestimate them…
How will his statement go down with worried MPs? One of the “smart” elements of the Green arrest was the timing. It happened just as Parliament was going into a five day recess ahead of the Queen’s Speech and the start of the new parliamentary year. This meant that there was no immediate platform for the issue of the police search of Green’s Commons’ office to be raised in the chamber. That all changes today and the Tories and the…
Will ID cards keep the Iraq switchers with the LDs? One of the great hopes which has sustained Labour during its recent bad times is that come the general election then many of the former supporters who voted Lib Dem in 2005 will return to the fold. For it will be recalled that this was the biggest voting dynamic in 2005. Much of Labour’s 6% decline on four years earlier could be put down to the large numbers who went…
CONSERVATIVES 40% (-1) LABOUR 36% (nc) LIB DEMS 14% (nc) Will this revive early election date speculation? A new YouGov poll that was carried out on Monday evening and throughout yesterday provides a lot of reassurance for Labour after the momentous statement by Chancellor Darling on Monday. The splits show almost most no change on the last survey from the firm and runs against much of the so called “informed” comment that we saw in the immediate aftermath of the…
Were there enough 2005 Lib Dems in the MORI sample? My apologies for the third post in succession on the Ipsos-MORI poll but it produced numbers that were so startling that it deserves further scrutiny. Yesterday it was all doom and gloom for the Lib Dems over the MORI 12% yet a close study of the data raises the question of whether were there enough 2005 Lib Dem supporters in the sample? It will be recalled that on May 5th…
Why so much variation over the Lib Dem number? Whenever I go anywhere, like yesterday during a very enjoyable visit to Westminster, virtually everybody I speak to asks me the same question – “Which pollster do you think is best?”. My answer, as always, is ICM because the record since the mid-90s shows that the firm’s methodology is more likely to pick up the most accurate Lib Dem share. This matters because it has a big impact on the Labour…
What is it about polling the third party? Just look at the figures in the panel above showing the Lib Dem shares in the latest surveys from the six firms that carry out regular national voting intention opinion polls. All but Populus are from surveys that have been published in the past week. How can you possibly have a situation with such a range of shares from the six different pollsters? This is important because the broad trend in most…
It’s 10/1 that he won’t make it to the general election? On July 29th 2004, just as Peter Mandelson was about to take up his role as EU Commissioner, we suggested here that the 3/1 that was then available on him leaving the role early was worth looking at noting that “looking at the form book this might be a good bet!” So another PB tip comes good and I must check with William Hill to find out how much…