The LDs equal their highest national share with YouGov since 2010
A pointer to tomorrow’s big by-election? The day before #Eastleigh – pie chart with latest YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013 How #Rennardgate is impacting on the Lib Dem shares in YouGov daily poll twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 27, 2013
Tonight’s latest Lib Dem betting
Latest Next LD leader odds from Ladbrokes bit.ly/c5gpH6 and Bet365 bit.ly/g4saCk twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 Latest NIck Clegg specials betting with Ladbrokes. bit.ly/c5gpH6 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013
As a general rule we over-estimate the impact of media stories on voting intentions
If #Eastleigh goes the way of the Ashcroft poll we’ll have to revise our view of the power of the press twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 26, 2013 The influence is on the decline On the face of the Lib Dem should be taking a real beating in the polls at the moment. Since the Rennard story broke on Thursday evening there has been increasing coverage and the party’s response has been less than optimal. But what’s happened in…
If Huhne gets 12 months or more then we could see the first CON-LD by-election spat since the coalition was formed
Huhne pleads guilty. If he’s jailed for a year he’ll lose his Eastleigh seat where LDs had maj of 3,864 at #GE2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 The full Eastleigh result from May 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 Ladbrokes make the LDs evens FAV to hold Eastleigh if there is a by-election.6/4 CONS, 6/1 UKIP, 10/1 LAB. bit.ly/c5gpH6 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 4, 2013 But what about a resurgent Labour?
EdM’s oppositon to an EU referendum could ensure that LD switchers are kept on board
How the millions of Lib Dem to LAB switchers have made Miiband’s party’s supporter base more pro-EU. twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 25, 2013 Henry G Manson: Marginal voters matters more This week’s stance taken by Labour on the EU caused some surprise among one or two folk. The Guardian reported that some Labour MPs were twitchy about it. Many of them had tactical concerns that Labour would appear that it was effectively not trusting the public. That is…
New academic study says that in 2010 LD incumbents cost Dave the chance to govern alone
How much will it be different in 2015? New academic work that has just been published shows that LD MPs have in the past enjoyed extremely large incumbency advantages on a level with those of US congressmen, This is said to have been worth between 5% and 15%. LAB and CON MPs, by contrast, had incumbency advantages of about 2% and 1% respectively. The report, published in Electoral Studies by Timothy Hallam Smith of the University of Nottingham, estimates that…
Now hints of a story you never thought you would see: Nick Clegg – the Comeback Kid
After the worst figures for 23 yrs from MORI yesterday Clegg & LDs see their best numbers with YouGov since Nov 2010 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 17, 2013 Update: Labour lead at 9 – Latest YouGov/The Sun results 16th Jan – CON 33%, LAB 42%, LD 12%, UKIP 8%; APP -28 y-g.co/10c9rhJ — YouGov (@YouGov) January 17, 2013 Cameron extends lead over EdM to 10% in YouGov’s best PM rating. He’s 33, EdM 23(-2), Clegg 7 (+2) —…