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Category: Lib Dems

The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

The Tory survival plan is based on the Lib Dems staying strong in CON-LAB battlegrounds but collapsing in CON-LD ones

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The evidence suggests that it’s working the other way round It’s been repeated often enough on PB that an essential part of Labour’s polling position is based on the very large proportion of 2010 LD voters who’ve now switched to Labour. If this hadn’t happened or starts to slip away then EdM’s dreams of becoming PM are in trouble. So far, at least, the evidence is that such a move that is even more pronounced in the key LAB-CON marginals…

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By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

By 40% to 39% men say Rennard should be allowed to remain in LDs. By 43% to 27% women say he shouldn’t

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What we have is a gender and a generational divide There’s a YouGov poll in the Times this morning in which there’s the first detailed questioning on whether Lord Rennard he should be allowed to stay with the Lib Dems or leave following the allegations of sexual harassment According to the paper’s report 40% said he should stay and 39% said he should leave. Among women, the split was 43% leave with only 27% saying he should stay. Amongst Lib…

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Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis but if he doesn’t watch out for Norman Lamb, the LD John Major

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In a crisis go for the grey haired man I’ve been getting a number of requests for my view on whether Clegg will survive the Rennard crisis and what my thoughts are on a likely successor. Certainly what appears to be open warfare between LD peers and the leadership together with the threatened legal action by Rennard make this a tricky period for Clegg. There might be factions who’ve never been supporters who could use the issue to try to…

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Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fuelled by the leader ratings remain

Not a bad set of weekend polls for Labour but doubts fuelled by the leader ratings remain

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But YouGov’s 8% for the LDs signals problems over Rennard Very irritatingly Opinium don’t publish their full dataset until after the weekend so we have yet to see the firm’s fortnightly leader approval ratings and a Euro election poll that they carried out. Almost all the other firms, bar ICM, now have near instantaneous publication of the detailed data as soon as headline numbers are released. Opinium should get their act together. They are the only firm to carry out…

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The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three quarters of the public sector workers who voted for them in 2010

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One of the great things about having a large overall sample, as Lord Ashcroft generally does, is that the sub-samples are based on numbers that give more confidence in the findings. This is why Lord Ashcroft polls in this way. Thus in the latest poll the total of public sector workers was 1.167 which is greater than the samples for many of the national surveys that we see. This has been a big area of change as the chart above…

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Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

Clegg’s big EE2014 gamble: pitching the LDs as the party of “in” and leading the fight against UKIP

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Telegraph's front page lead pic.twitter.com/Z6MyQmSecj — PolPics (@PolPics) December 31, 2013 Can the yellows retain their 4th place? The Telegraph is leading this morning on attacks by Nick Clegg and Treasury Secretary, Danny Alexander, on UKIP with them pitching the party as the only one which is enthusiastic about remaining in the EU. This is the first serious campaigning ahead of May’s elections which are now less than five months away. The Clegg argument is that a strong vote performance…

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How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

How the crucial swing voter group of 2010 Lib Dems rates the Conservatives and Labour on key policy areas

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Following on from this morning’s post on the importance of 2010 Lib Dems to Labour’s current polling I’ve now been looking at policy areas to see how this crucial group of potential swing voters view the blues and the reds. Quite simply I’ve taken the LD 2010 responses from this week’s YouGov “which political party you think would handle XXXX best?” findings and divided the total saying CON by those saying LAB. The results are in the chart above. As…

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