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Category: Leaders’ TV debates

The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

The WH2020 betting edges to Biden after probably the worst TV debate ever

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I made the mistake of staying up and watching the Trump – Biden debate which was truly awful. This was the verdict of Taegan Goddard of PoliticalWire: This debate was one of the most embarrassing events in the history of American politics. Donald Trump’s only strategy was to interrupt constantly. When he talked, he mostly lied. But Trump was successful at throwing the entire debate off the rails. He apparently decided you can’t lose a debate if you ruin it. Joe…

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Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

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Given their importance this sounds like a risky strategy The next big event in the White House race is the the first TV debate between Trump and Biden – something that at previous elections contenders have put a lot of effort preparing for trying to anticipate how the event will go and have ready some biting attack lines. So it is rather surprising that the incumbent, Mr. Trump, has decided to spurn the normal preparation. According to NBC News: The…

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On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

On the betting markets the debate has changed nothing

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The betdata.io chart shows the last five days on the Betfair exchange and as can be seen there was almost no movement. The Tories are still rated by punters as having a 65% chance of securing a majority. This verdict is very much the same as what many leading commentators are saying but I wonder whether the instant view is correct. In the past the on the night judgements have been less than an accurate guide. One thing we’ve learned…

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Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%

Johnson starts debate day with punters rating his chances of a majority at 66%

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My betting strategy for tonight One thing’s for sure – tonight’s debate will either confirm or raise doubts about Johnson’s chances of leading his party to an overall majority on December 12th. There will be a lot of betting on this market tonight. The Tory record with debates is not that strong. Cameron was taken aback by Nick Clegg being deemed to “winner” of the first TV debate in April 2010 and this prompted the betting market to mark down…

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Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake

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Great thread from the New Stateman’s Stephen Bush Two. Ignore everything you think about the candidates and their abilities: head-to-head is harder for the incumbent PM, because they are the only one with a record to defend. https://t.co/7VWTL4KXWF — Stephen Bush (@stephenkb) November 18, 2019 Four. Even if form goes out the window and Johnson wins, the event itself is a big "Lib Dems CAN'T win here!" klaxon which from the polls is not a great message for Johnson to…

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